France's ongoing political instability, rooted in the 2024 snap legislative elections that produced a fragmented National Assembly, has led to repeated government collapses, including the short-lived tenures of Prime Ministers Bayrou and Lecornu in 2025. President Macron has consistently rejected calls for early resignation from opposition parties, particularly on the left, and has emphasized completing his second term through May 2027. Budget negotiations and no-confidence votes continue to test parliamentary majorities, yet structural barriers such as the absence of a viable early election trigger and Macron's stated commitment to his mandate keep the probability of an early exit low in trader assessments. Municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 represent one potential pressure point before the presidential vote.