A US-brokered ceasefire agreement reached in October 2025 halted major operations, secured the release of remaining hostages, and set phases for Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawals from parts of Gaza, and a new Palestinian administration under the Board of Peace. Implementation has stalled, with Israel conducting regular strikes against alleged violators and expanding control beyond the initial "Yellow Line" to roughly 65-70% of the territory, while Hamas retains weapons and de facto security authority in remaining areas. Hamas has endorsed a phased disarmament roadmap linked to reciprocal Israeli steps, but Netanyahu has conditioned further withdrawals on complete, verifiable decommissioning. Ongoing low-level violations reported by both sides, limited aid inflows, and stalled reconstruction continue amid Netanyahu's tight reelection contest scheduled for late October 2026. These frictions over sequencing and enforcement shape trader assessments of which party might first trigger a formal breakdown.