Israel's ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, intensified since early March amid the wider Iran conflict, features frequent airstrikes on command centers, weapon depots, and infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, alongside limited ground operations launched March 16. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on March 24 plans to occupy territory up to the Litani, prompting Hezbollah counterattacks including missile barrages and claims of downing an Israeli helicopter. A March 28 airstrike killing three journalists in Jezzine heightened tensions, with Lebanon accusing war crimes. Traders weigh escalation risks against fragile ceasefire talks and Israeli domestic opposition to prolonged fighting, with no major de-escalation signals as evacuation orders expand northward.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$3,580,988 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 28
97%
March 29
96%
March 30
94%
March 31
95%
$3,580,988 Объем
March 28
$45,695 Объем
97%
March 29
$15,299 Объем
96%
March 30
$6,263 Объем
94%
March 31
$25,398 Объем
95%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, intensified since early March amid the wider Iran conflict, features frequent airstrikes on command centers, weapon depots, and infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, alongside limited ground operations launched March 16. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on March 24 plans to occupy territory up to the Litani, prompting Hezbollah counterattacks including missile barrages and claims of downing an Israeli helicopter. A March 28 airstrike killing three journalists in Jezzine heightened tensions, with Lebanon accusing war crimes. Traders weigh escalation risks against fragile ceasefire talks and Israeli domestic opposition to prolonged fighting, with no major de-escalation signals as evacuation orders expand northward.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Объем
$3,580,988Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, intensified since early March amid the wider Iran conflict, features frequent airstrikes on command centers, weapon depots, and infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, alongside limited ground operations launched March 16. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on March 24 plans to occupy territory up to the Litani, prompting Hezbollah counterattacks including missile barrages and claims of downing an Israeli helicopter. A March 28 airstrike killing three journalists in Jezzine heightened tensions, with Lebanon accusing war crimes. Traders weigh escalation risks against fragile ceasefire talks and Israeli domestic opposition to prolonged fighting, with no major de-escalation signals as evacuation orders expand northward.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$3,580,988Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
Israel's ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, intensified since early March amid the wider Iran conflict, features frequent airstrikes on command centers, weapon depots, and infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, alongside limited ground operations launched March 16. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on March 24 plans to occupy territory up to the Litani, prompting Hezbollah counterattacks including missile barrages and claims of downing an Israeli helicopter. A March 28 airstrike killing three journalists in Jezzine heightened tensions, with Lebanon accusing war crimes. Traders weigh escalation risks against fragile ceasefire talks and Israeli domestic opposition to prolonged fighting, with no major de-escalation signals as evacuation orders expand northward.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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