Amid the escalating 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces have executed at least 21 confirmed kinetic attacks on merchant vessels as of mid-March, imposing a de facto blockade with reported $2 million passage fees and halting most non-compliant transits. Trader consensus reflects this pattern alongside recent diplomatic escalations, including Iran's March 30 urging of Houthi allies—per European officials—to renew Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. actions intensify, and Houthi missile barrages toward Israel over the past week raising dual-chokepoint risks. U.S. naval patrols, Trump administration threats for oil tanker passages, and potential IRGC retaliations to Houthi setbacks loom as pivotal near-term catalysts through April.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$118,770 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
March 31
5%
$118,770 Объем
March 31
$5,682 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces have executed at least 21 confirmed kinetic attacks on merchant vessels as of mid-March, imposing a de facto blockade with reported $2 million passage fees and halting most non-compliant transits. Trader consensus reflects this pattern alongside recent diplomatic escalations, including Iran's March 30 urging of Houthi allies—per European officials—to renew Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. actions intensify, and Houthi missile barrages toward Israel over the past week raising dual-chokepoint risks. U.S. naval patrols, Trump administration threats for oil tanker passages, and potential IRGC retaliations to Houthi setbacks loom as pivotal near-term catalysts through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$118,770Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces have executed at least 21 confirmed kinetic attacks on merchant vessels as of mid-March, imposing a de facto blockade with reported $2 million passage fees and halting most non-compliant transits. Trader consensus reflects this pattern alongside recent diplomatic escalations, including Iran's March 30 urging of Houthi allies—per European officials—to renew Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. actions intensify, and Houthi missile barrages toward Israel over the past week raising dual-chokepoint risks. U.S. naval patrols, Trump administration threats for oil tanker passages, and potential IRGC retaliations to Houthi setbacks loom as pivotal near-term catalysts through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$118,770Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the escalating 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces have executed at least 21 confirmed kinetic attacks on merchant vessels as of mid-March, imposing a de facto blockade with reported $2 million passage fees and halting most non-compliant transits. Trader consensus reflects this pattern alongside recent diplomatic escalations, including Iran's March 30 urging of Houthi allies—per European officials—to renew Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. actions intensify, and Houthi missile barrages toward Israel over the past week raising dual-chokepoint risks. U.S. naval patrols, Trump administration threats for oil tanker passages, and potential IRGC retaliations to Houthi setbacks loom as pivotal near-term catalysts through April.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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