Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. He has maintained a low public profile since, with reports citing injuries from those attacks, including possible fractures and bruising, and unconfirmed accounts of medical evacuation to Moscow or treatment in Qom. Iranian officials and state media have indicated he remains in the country, while the ongoing conflict raises security risks for leadership figures. Trader sentiment on departure timelines reflects these medical and wartime factors, alongside the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC ties and clerical institutions, with any verified diplomatic travel or health updates likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,397,035 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
31 мая
1%
30 июня
2%
$1,397,035 Объем
31 мая
$260,396 Объем
1%
30 июня
$165,029 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. He has maintained a low public profile since, with reports citing injuries from those attacks, including possible fractures and bruising, and unconfirmed accounts of medical evacuation to Moscow or treatment in Qom. Iranian officials and state media have indicated he remains in the country, while the ongoing conflict raises security risks for leadership figures. Trader sentiment on departure timelines reflects these medical and wartime factors, alongside the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC ties and clerical institutions, with any verified diplomatic travel or health updates likely to influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$1,397,035Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. He has maintained a low public profile since, with reports citing injuries from those attacks, including possible fractures and bruising, and unconfirmed accounts of medical evacuation to Moscow or treatment in Qom. Iranian officials and state media have indicated he remains in the country, while the ongoing conflict raises security risks for leadership figures. Trader sentiment on departure timelines reflects these medical and wartime factors, alongside the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC ties and clerical institutions, with any verified diplomatic travel or health updates likely to influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,397,035Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. He has maintained a low public profile since, with reports citing injuries from those attacks, including possible fractures and bruising, and unconfirmed accounts of medical evacuation to Moscow or treatment in Qom. Iranian officials and state media have indicated he remains in the country, while the ongoing conflict raises security risks for leadership figures. Trader sentiment on departure timelines reflects these medical and wartime factors, alongside the regime's emphasis on continuity through IRGC ties and clerical institutions, with any verified diplomatic travel or health updates likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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