Mojtaba Khamenei, elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, has remained out of public view and is reported by US intelligence to be in an undisclosed location with communications limited to couriers. This low profile amid ongoing wartime negotiations and regional tensions has fueled trader focus on whether security risks, health factors, or internal pressures could prompt his departure from Iran by the market's resolution date. Recent attributed statements via state media and continued IRGC influence around the leadership underscore continuity efforts, while historical precedent for Iranian officials seeking exile or medical treatment abroad provides context for potential shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,705,797 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
31 мая
<1%
30 июня
2%
$1,705,797 Объем
31 мая
$438,610 Объем
<1%
30 июня
$295,577 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, has remained out of public view and is reported by US intelligence to be in an undisclosed location with communications limited to couriers. This low profile amid ongoing wartime negotiations and regional tensions has fueled trader focus on whether security risks, health factors, or internal pressures could prompt his departure from Iran by the market's resolution date. Recent attributed statements via state media and continued IRGC influence around the leadership underscore continuity efforts, while historical precedent for Iranian officials seeking exile or medical treatment abroad provides context for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$1,705,797Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, has remained out of public view and is reported by US intelligence to be in an undisclosed location with communications limited to couriers. This low profile amid ongoing wartime negotiations and regional tensions has fueled trader focus on whether security risks, health factors, or internal pressures could prompt his departure from Iran by the market's resolution date. Recent attributed statements via state media and continued IRGC influence around the leadership underscore continuity efforts, while historical precedent for Iranian officials seeking exile or medical treatment abroad provides context for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,705,797Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei, elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, has remained out of public view and is reported by US intelligence to be in an undisclosed location with communications limited to couriers. This low profile amid ongoing wartime negotiations and regional tensions has fueled trader focus on whether security risks, health factors, or internal pressures could prompt his departure from Iran by the market's resolution date. Recent attributed statements via state media and continued IRGC influence around the leadership underscore continuity efforts, while historical precedent for Iranian officials seeking exile or medical treatment abroad provides context for potential shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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