Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, has not made public appearances amid the escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict, prompting rumors of injury or incapacity. Russian Ambassador Alexey Dedov confirmed on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but avoids visibility for security reasons during wartime conditions, while Iranian officials echoed his good health and attributed recent statements—like one on April 4 claiming a downed US F-15—to him. No verified reports indicate departure or exile, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probability of exit by near-term dates due to official affirmations and absence of defection signals, though regime instability and further airstrikes could alter dynamics ahead of potential public disclosures or leadership challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$779,441 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
April 30
3%
31 мая
6%
30 июня
8%
$779,441 Объем
April 30
$110,950 Объем
3%
31 мая
$2,841 Объем
6%
30 июня
$3,173 Объем
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, has not made public appearances amid the escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict, prompting rumors of injury or incapacity. Russian Ambassador Alexey Dedov confirmed on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but avoids visibility for security reasons during wartime conditions, while Iranian officials echoed his good health and attributed recent statements—like one on April 4 claiming a downed US F-15—to him. No verified reports indicate departure or exile, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probability of exit by near-term dates due to official affirmations and absence of defection signals, though regime instability and further airstrikes could alter dynamics ahead of potential public disclosures or leadership challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Объем
$779,441Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, has not made public appearances amid the escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict, prompting rumors of injury or incapacity. Russian Ambassador Alexey Dedov confirmed on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but avoids visibility for security reasons during wartime conditions, while Iranian officials echoed his good health and attributed recent statements—like one on April 4 claiming a downed US F-15—to him. No verified reports indicate departure or exile, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probability of exit by near-term dates due to official affirmations and absence of defection signals, though regime instability and further airstrikes could alter dynamics ahead of potential public disclosures or leadership challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$779,441Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, has not made public appearances amid the escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict, prompting rumors of injury or incapacity. Russian Ambassador Alexey Dedov confirmed on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but avoids visibility for security reasons during wartime conditions, while Iranian officials echoed his good health and attributed recent statements—like one on April 4 claiming a downed US F-15—to him. No verified reports indicate departure or exile, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probability of exit by near-term dates due to official affirmations and absence of defection signals, though regime instability and further airstrikes could alter dynamics ahead of potential public disclosures or leadership challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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