Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's third supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated broader conflict. He has issued written statements and authorized state media messages since taking office but has made no confirmed public appearances, amid reports of injuries sustained in the attacks and questions over his day-to-day control amid IRGC influence. Trader odds remain low for any departure by mid-2026 because his institutional position as head of state, combined with regime security protocols and the absence of verified exile signals, make voluntary or forced exit unlikely absent major military escalation or internal collapse. No scheduled events such as confirmation votes or summits currently alter this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,396,961 Объем
31 мая
1%
30 июня
3%
$1,396,961 Объем
31 мая
1%
30 июня
3%
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's third supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated broader conflict. He has issued written statements and authorized state media messages since taking office but has made no confirmed public appearances, amid reports of injuries sustained in the attacks and questions over his day-to-day control amid IRGC influence. Trader odds remain low for any departure by mid-2026 because his institutional position as head of state, combined with regime security protocols and the absence of verified exile signals, make voluntary or forced exit unlikely absent major military escalation or internal collapse. No scheduled events such as confirmation votes or summits currently alter this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы