Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including those in the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have consistently framed their objectives around self-determination, democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas, and federal arrangements within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. Public statements and coalition charters emphasize regime change and local governance during any transition period but stop short of declaring an independent state or claiming exclusive territorial sovereignty. This approach aligns with longstanding party platforms seeking autonomy inside Iran, amid ongoing regime suppression and limited military reach beyond sporadic protests and strikes. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no declaration by the June 30, 2026 resolution date due to these explicit positions and structural barriers. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or major external military backing could still alter trajectories, though no such developments have materialized.