Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed a coalition in February 2026 aimed at self-determination and democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas if the current regime collapses, yet their statements consistently prioritize federalism or autonomy within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. No recognized group has issued a formal declaration of an independent state or asserted exclusive governing authority over territory ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Iranian security operations, limited external support for partition, and opposition from Turkey and Iraq to border changes reinforce these barriers. Trader consensus at 96.5% on No reflects these constraints, though sudden regime shifts or major escalation could still create conditions for a declaration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКурды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Курды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Да
$142,477 Объем
$142,477 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$142,477 Объем
$142,477 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed a coalition in February 2026 aimed at self-determination and democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas if the current regime collapses, yet their statements consistently prioritize federalism or autonomy within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. No recognized group has issued a formal declaration of an independent state or asserted exclusive governing authority over territory ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Iranian security operations, limited external support for partition, and opposition from Turkey and Iraq to border changes reinforce these barriers. Trader consensus at 96.5% on No reflects these constraints, though sudden regime shifts or major escalation could still create conditions for a declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Объем
$142,477Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed a coalition in February 2026 aimed at self-determination and democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas if the current regime collapses, yet their statements consistently prioritize federalism or autonomy within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. No recognized group has issued a formal declaration of an independent state or asserted exclusive governing authority over territory ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Iranian security operations, limited external support for partition, and opposition from Turkey and Iraq to border changes reinforce these barriers. Trader consensus at 96.5% on No reflects these constraints, though sudden regime shifts or major escalation could still create conditions for a declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$142,477Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed a coalition in February 2026 aimed at self-determination and democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas if the current regime collapses, yet their statements consistently prioritize federalism or autonomy within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. No recognized group has issued a formal declaration of an independent state or asserted exclusive governing authority over territory ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Iranian security operations, limited external support for partition, and opposition from Turkey and Iraq to border changes reinforce these barriers. Trader consensus at 96.5% on No reflects these constraints, though sudden regime shifts or major escalation could still create conditions for a declaration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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