Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including those in the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have consistently framed their objectives around self-determination, democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas, and federal arrangements within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. Public statements and coalition charters emphasize regime change and local governance during any transition period but stop short of declaring an independent state or claiming exclusive territorial sovereignty. This approach aligns with longstanding party platforms seeking autonomy inside Iran, amid ongoing regime suppression and limited military reach beyond sporadic protests and strikes. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no declaration by the June 30, 2026 resolution date due to these explicit positions and structural barriers. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or major external military backing could still alter trajectories, though no such developments have materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКурды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Да
$142,491 Объем
$142,491 Объем
Да
$142,491 Объем
$142,491 Объем
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including those in the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have consistently framed their objectives around self-determination, democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas, and federal arrangements within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. Public statements and coalition charters emphasize regime change and local governance during any transition period but stop short of declaring an independent state or claiming exclusive territorial sovereignty. This approach aligns with longstanding party platforms seeking autonomy inside Iran, amid ongoing regime suppression and limited military reach beyond sporadic protests and strikes. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no declaration by the June 30, 2026 resolution date due to these explicit positions and structural barriers. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or major external military backing could still alter trajectories, though no such developments have materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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