Trader consensus prices Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at just 14.7%, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid no credible path for the exiled opposition figure to assume power. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 elicited limited missile retaliation but no domestic unrest or defections, underscoring regime resilience despite economic sanctions and proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Khamenei's advanced age fuels speculation on succession—potentially to his son Mojtaba or regime insiders—but Pahlavi lacks organized internal support, military backing, or mass protests since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising faded. Significant barriers include constitutional structures barring monarchist restoration and state repression of dissent, though unforeseen escalation or elite fractures could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВозглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Да
$826,755 Объем
$826,755 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$826,755 Объем
$826,755 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at just 14.7%, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid no credible path for the exiled opposition figure to assume power. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 elicited limited missile retaliation but no domestic unrest or defections, underscoring regime resilience despite economic sanctions and proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Khamenei's advanced age fuels speculation on succession—potentially to his son Mojtaba or regime insiders—but Pahlavi lacks organized internal support, military backing, or mass protests since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising faded. Significant barriers include constitutional structures barring monarchist restoration and state repression of dissent, though unforeseen escalation or elite fractures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Объем
$826,755Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at just 14.7%, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid no credible path for the exiled opposition figure to assume power. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 elicited limited missile retaliation but no domestic unrest or defections, underscoring regime resilience despite economic sanctions and proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Khamenei's advanced age fuels speculation on succession—potentially to his son Mojtaba or regime insiders—but Pahlavi lacks organized internal support, military backing, or mass protests since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising faded. Significant barriers include constitutional structures barring monarchist restoration and state repression of dissent, though unforeseen escalation or elite fractures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$826,755Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at just 14.7%, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid no credible path for the exiled opposition figure to assume power. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 elicited limited missile retaliation but no domestic unrest or defections, underscoring regime resilience despite economic sanctions and proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Khamenei's advanced age fuels speculation on succession—potentially to his son Mojtaba or regime insiders—but Pahlavi lacks organized internal support, military backing, or mass protests since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising faded. Significant barriers include constitutional structures barring monarchist restoration and state repression of dissent, though unforeseen escalation or elite fractures could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы