Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 85.3% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was swiftly appointed successor on March 9, rejecting de-escalation overtures as recently as March 17, with US intelligence assessing no imminent collapse risk as of March 11. While Pahlavi's mid-March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—bolstered by CPAC appearances and exile endorsements—have amplified opposition voices, the IRGC's loyalty, lack of mass defections, and suppressed protests underscore formidable barriers to regime change within the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВозглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Да
$827,015 Объем
$827,015 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$827,015 Объем
$827,015 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 85.3% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was swiftly appointed successor on March 9, rejecting de-escalation overtures as recently as March 17, with US intelligence assessing no imminent collapse risk as of March 11. While Pahlavi's mid-March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—bolstered by CPAC appearances and exile endorsements—have amplified opposition voices, the IRGC's loyalty, lack of mass defections, and suppressed protests underscore formidable barriers to regime change within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Объем
$827,015Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 85.3% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was swiftly appointed successor on March 9, rejecting de-escalation overtures as recently as March 17, with US intelligence assessing no imminent collapse risk as of March 11. While Pahlavi's mid-March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—bolstered by CPAC appearances and exile endorsements—have amplified opposition voices, the IRGC's loyalty, lack of mass defections, and suppressed protests underscore formidable barriers to regime change within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$827,015Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 85.3% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was swiftly appointed successor on March 9, rejecting de-escalation overtures as recently as March 17, with US intelligence assessing no imminent collapse risk as of March 11. While Pahlavi's mid-March announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—bolstered by CPAC appearances and exile endorsements—have amplified opposition voices, the IRGC's loyalty, lack of mass defections, and suppressed protests underscore formidable barriers to regime change within the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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