Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Iranian IRGC forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by conducting kinetic strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, successfully targeting a Palau-flagged tanker north of Oman yesterday and admitting a strike on the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree last week that caused a major fire and injuries. Shipping transit has plummeted over 95%, with IRGC opening a limited tolled passage five days ago amid threats to any unauthorized passage. President Trump stated yesterday the war could end in two to three weeks without a deal, while Houthis signal Red Sea attacks; traders weigh US threats of further strikes against energy sites versus diplomatic off-ramps like EU talks with Tehran.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$118,888 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
March 31
2%
$118,888 Объем
March 31
$5,799 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Iranian IRGC forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by conducting kinetic strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, successfully targeting a Palau-flagged tanker north of Oman yesterday and admitting a strike on the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree last week that caused a major fire and injuries. Shipping transit has plummeted over 95%, with IRGC opening a limited tolled passage five days ago amid threats to any unauthorized passage. President Trump stated yesterday the war could end in two to three weeks without a deal, while Houthis signal Red Sea attacks; traders weigh US threats of further strikes against energy sites versus diplomatic off-ramps like EU talks with Tehran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$118,888Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Iranian IRGC forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by conducting kinetic strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, successfully targeting a Palau-flagged tanker north of Oman yesterday and admitting a strike on the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree last week that caused a major fire and injuries. Shipping transit has plummeted over 95%, with IRGC opening a limited tolled passage five days ago amid threats to any unauthorized passage. President Trump stated yesterday the war could end in two to three weeks without a deal, while Houthis signal Red Sea attacks; traders weigh US threats of further strikes against energy sites versus diplomatic off-ramps like EU talks with Tehran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$118,888Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Iranian IRGC forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by conducting kinetic strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, successfully targeting a Palau-flagged tanker north of Oman yesterday and admitting a strike on the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree last week that caused a major fire and injuries. Shipping transit has plummeted over 95%, with IRGC opening a limited tolled passage five days ago amid threats to any unauthorized passage. President Trump stated yesterday the war could end in two to three weeks without a deal, while Houthis signal Red Sea attacks; traders weigh US threats of further strikes against energy sites versus diplomatic off-ramps like EU talks with Tehran.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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