Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the Israel-linked container ship MSC Aries in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2024, marking a direct Iranian action against commercial shipping amid heightened Middle East tensions following Tehran's drone and missile barrage on Israel. This incident, the first overt IRGC vessel seizure since 2021, has raised escalation risks, with the US Navy escorting ships and imposing new sanctions on Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue Red Sea attacks on shipping in solidarity with Gaza, prompting ongoing US-UK airstrikes. No further direct Iranian targeting has occurred in the past week, but threats of Hormuz closure persist if Israeli retaliation intensifies; traders watch for diplomatic de-escalation signals or naval confrontations ahead of any US election-year policy shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$81,840 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
3%
March 27
12%
March 28
5%
March 29
8%
March 30
8%
March 31
2%
$81,840 Объем
March 25
$30,543 Объем
1%
March 26
$5,576 Объем
3%
March 27
$15,834 Объем
12%
March 28
$6,191 Объем
5%
March 29
$7,165 Объем
8%
March 30
$7,924 Объем
8%
March 31
$684 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the Israel-linked container ship MSC Aries in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2024, marking a direct Iranian action against commercial shipping amid heightened Middle East tensions following Tehran's drone and missile barrage on Israel. This incident, the first overt IRGC vessel seizure since 2021, has raised escalation risks, with the US Navy escorting ships and imposing new sanctions on Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue Red Sea attacks on shipping in solidarity with Gaza, prompting ongoing US-UK airstrikes. No further direct Iranian targeting has occurred in the past week, but threats of Hormuz closure persist if Israeli retaliation intensifies; traders watch for diplomatic de-escalation signals or naval confrontations ahead of any US election-year policy shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$81,840Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the Israel-linked container ship MSC Aries in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2024, marking a direct Iranian action against commercial shipping amid heightened Middle East tensions following Tehran's drone and missile barrage on Israel. This incident, the first overt IRGC vessel seizure since 2021, has raised escalation risks, with the US Navy escorting ships and imposing new sanctions on Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue Red Sea attacks on shipping in solidarity with Gaza, prompting ongoing US-UK airstrikes. No further direct Iranian targeting has occurred in the past week, but threats of Hormuz closure persist if Israeli retaliation intensifies; traders watch for diplomatic de-escalation signals or naval confrontations ahead of any US election-year policy shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$81,840Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the Israel-linked container ship MSC Aries in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2024, marking a direct Iranian action against commercial shipping amid heightened Middle East tensions following Tehran's drone and missile barrage on Israel. This incident, the first overt IRGC vessel seizure since 2021, has raised escalation risks, with the US Navy escorting ships and imposing new sanctions on Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue Red Sea attacks on shipping in solidarity with Gaza, prompting ongoing US-UK airstrikes. No further direct Iranian targeting has occurred in the past week, but threats of Hormuz closure persist if Israeli retaliation intensifies; traders watch for diplomatic de-escalation signals or naval confrontations ahead of any US election-year policy shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы