Amid escalating US-Iran military actions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—Iran's IRGC struck a Thai container ship on March 27, declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, and imposed tolls for selective passage, following the March 11 attack on the Mayuree Naree and mid-March suicide boat rammings near Basra. US-Israeli airstrikes since March 18 have destroyed Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones, mines, and naval assets, slashing shipping traffic 95% and limiting Tehran's capacity for further direct strikes on commercial vessels. Trader consensus reflects this degraded retaliatory posture despite IRGC escalation vows, with upcoming merchant transits and potential airstrikes as key catalysts through April.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$87,186 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
1%
March 27
3%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$87,186 Объем
March 25
$30,548 Объем
1%
March 26
$5,945 Объем
1%
March 27
$19,651 Объем
3%
March 28
$6,877 Объем
3%
March 29
$7,600 Объем
5%
March 30
$7,953 Объем
7%
March 31
$689 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran military actions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—Iran's IRGC struck a Thai container ship on March 27, declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, and imposed tolls for selective passage, following the March 11 attack on the Mayuree Naree and mid-March suicide boat rammings near Basra. US-Israeli airstrikes since March 18 have destroyed Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones, mines, and naval assets, slashing shipping traffic 95% and limiting Tehran's capacity for further direct strikes on commercial vessels. Trader consensus reflects this degraded retaliatory posture despite IRGC escalation vows, with upcoming merchant transits and potential airstrikes as key catalysts through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$87,186Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran military actions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—Iran's IRGC struck a Thai container ship on March 27, declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, and imposed tolls for selective passage, following the March 11 attack on the Mayuree Naree and mid-March suicide boat rammings near Basra. US-Israeli airstrikes since March 18 have destroyed Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones, mines, and naval assets, slashing shipping traffic 95% and limiting Tehran's capacity for further direct strikes on commercial vessels. Trader consensus reflects this degraded retaliatory posture despite IRGC escalation vows, with upcoming merchant transits and potential airstrikes as key catalysts through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$87,186Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran military actions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—Iran's IRGC struck a Thai container ship on March 27, declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, and imposed tolls for selective passage, following the March 11 attack on the Mayuree Naree and mid-March suicide boat rammings near Basra. US-Israeli airstrikes since March 18 have destroyed Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones, mines, and naval assets, slashing shipping traffic 95% and limiting Tehran's capacity for further direct strikes on commercial vessels. Trader consensus reflects this degraded retaliatory posture despite IRGC escalation vows, with upcoming merchant transits and potential airstrikes as key catalysts through April.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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