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Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Iran military action against Israel on...?

Market icon
Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Iran military action against Israel on...?

Ended: мар. 31

апр. 30

Ended: мар. 31

апр. 30

$2,139,493 Объем

31 мар. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$2,139,493 Объем

Polymarket

March 18

$0 Объем

Yes

March 19

$0 Объем

No

March 20

$0 Объем

Yes

March 21

$0 Объем

Yes

March 22

$0 Объем

Yes

March 23

$1,459,446 Объем

No

March 24

$0 Объем

Yes

March 25

$145,695 Объем

Yes

March 26

$74,701 Объем

Yes

March 27

$232,742 Объем

Yes

March 28

$71,770 Объем

Yes

March 29

$47,704 Объем

Yes

March 30

$64,792 Объем

Yes

March 31

$42,644 Объем

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,139,493
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

Предложенный исход: Yes

Оспаривается

Предложенный исход: Yes

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, now over a month old since February 28 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, anchors trader consensus on persistent Iranian military action against Israel. Iran has launched daily ballistic missile barrages—over 400 reported—targeting Israeli population centers, with recent cluster munitions hitting areas like Ramat Gan and a fresh Houthi-claimed joint attack alongside Hezbollah on April 1. Israel's multilayered air defenses have intercepted most, but civilian casualties mount. Diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 1 statement that Iran's new regime president requested a ceasefire, conditioned on reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz amid global oil disruptions; escalation or de-escalation hinges on these talks and proxy involvement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,139,493
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

Предложенный исход: Yes

Оспаривается

Предложенный исход: Yes

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Yes

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Iran military action against Israel on...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «March 18» с 100%, за ним следует «March 20» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Iran military action against Israel on...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2.1 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 17, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Iran military action against Israel on...?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Iran military action against Israel on...?» — «March 18» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «March 20» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Iran military action against Israel on...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.