The 2026 Iran War, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has seen Iran launch repeated ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel, with seven waves on March 25 alone impacting near power plants and injuring civilians, followed by daily salvos including cluster munitions hitting central areas like Tel Aviv as of March 28-29. Israeli defenses intercepted most, but some caused casualties amid counterstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, steel plants, and Tehran. Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling proxy escalation. Traders watch for IRGC vows of retaliation, US Marine deployments, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could intensify exchanges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$1,347,661 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
<1%
March 27
97%
March 29
97%
March 30
88%
March 31
86%
$1,347,661 Объем
March 23
$936,725 Объем
<1%
March 27
$92,252 Объем
97%
March 29
$15,994 Объем
97%
March 30
$5,977 Объем
88%
March 31
$4,548 Объем
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The 2026 Iran War, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has seen Iran launch repeated ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel, with seven waves on March 25 alone impacting near power plants and injuring civilians, followed by daily salvos including cluster munitions hitting central areas like Tel Aviv as of March 28-29. Israeli defenses intercepted most, but some caused casualties amid counterstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, steel plants, and Tehran. Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling proxy escalation. Traders watch for IRGC vows of retaliation, US Marine deployments, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could intensify exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,347,661Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.The 2026 Iran War, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has seen Iran launch repeated ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel, with seven waves on March 25 alone impacting near power plants and injuring civilians, followed by daily salvos including cluster munitions hitting central areas like Tel Aviv as of March 28-29. Israeli defenses intercepted most, but some caused casualties amid counterstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, steel plants, and Tehran. Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling proxy escalation. Traders watch for IRGC vows of retaliation, US Marine deployments, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could intensify exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$1,347,661Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
The 2026 Iran War, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has seen Iran launch repeated ballistic missile and drone barrages at Israel, with seven waves on March 25 alone impacting near power plants and injuring civilians, followed by daily salvos including cluster munitions hitting central areas like Tel Aviv as of March 28-29. Israeli defenses intercepted most, but some caused casualties amid counterstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, steel plants, and Tehran. Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missile at Israel on March 28, intercepted, signaling proxy escalation. Traders watch for IRGC vows of retaliation, US Marine deployments, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could intensify exchanges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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