Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israel persist amid the month-long US-Israeli war launched February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—nuclear facilities, and missile production. Direct Iranian attacks continued with multiple waves in late March, including a March 25 missile near Hadera's Orot Rabin Power Plant and cluster munitions in Eilat and central Israel on March 14, most intercepted by Israeli defenses. Iran rejected a US ceasefire plan March 25, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz control, while IRGC threatened strikes on US-Israeli universities by March 30 in response to attacks on Tehran's academic sites. Regional powers meet today in Pakistan amid Houthi missile fire on Israel yesterday, heightening escalation risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
85%
April 2
81%
April 3
79%
April 4
78%
April 5
76%
April 6
75%
April 7
74%
April 8
76%
April 9
73%
April 10
74%
$1,595 Объем
April 1
$576 Объем
85%
April 2
$250 Объем
81%
April 3
$117 Объем
79%
April 4
$59 Объем
78%
April 5
$19 Объем
76%
April 6
$31 Объем
75%
April 7
$164 Объем
74%
April 8
$180 Объем
76%
April 9
$113 Объем
73%
April 10
$84 Объем
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israel persist amid the month-long US-Israeli war launched February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—nuclear facilities, and missile production. Direct Iranian attacks continued with multiple waves in late March, including a March 25 missile near Hadera's Orot Rabin Power Plant and cluster munitions in Eilat and central Israel on March 14, most intercepted by Israeli defenses. Iran rejected a US ceasefire plan March 25, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz control, while IRGC threatened strikes on US-Israeli universities by March 30 in response to attacks on Tehran's academic sites. Regional powers meet today in Pakistan amid Houthi missile fire on Israel yesterday, heightening escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Объем
$1,595Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israel persist amid the month-long US-Israeli war launched February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—nuclear facilities, and missile production. Direct Iranian attacks continued with multiple waves in late March, including a March 25 missile near Hadera's Orot Rabin Power Plant and cluster munitions in Eilat and central Israel on March 14, most intercepted by Israeli defenses. Iran rejected a US ceasefire plan March 25, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz control, while IRGC threatened strikes on US-Israeli universities by March 30 in response to attacks on Tehran's academic sites. Regional powers meet today in Pakistan amid Houthi missile fire on Israel yesterday, heightening escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$1,595Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israel persist amid the month-long US-Israeli war launched February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—nuclear facilities, and missile production. Direct Iranian attacks continued with multiple waves in late March, including a March 25 missile near Hadera's Orot Rabin Power Plant and cluster munitions in Eilat and central Israel on March 14, most intercepted by Israeli defenses. Iran rejected a US ceasefire plan March 25, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz control, while IRGC threatened strikes on US-Israeli universities by March 30 in response to attacks on Tehran's academic sites. Regional powers meet today in Pakistan amid Houthi missile fire on Israel yesterday, heightening escalation risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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