In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting US military bases and infrastructure in Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, causing casualties, refinery disruptions, and heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE defenses intercepted 26 Iranian projectiles on April 2, while Kuwait reported strikes on oil facilities as recently as April 3. Gulf monarchies have condemned Tehran and are weighing offensive involvement amid fury over attacks, as Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait loom if escalation draws them in further; diplomatic talks remain stalled with no ceasefire in sight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
$31,679 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
April 1
99%
April 2
12%
April 3
97%
April 4
54%
April 5
94%
April 6
88%
April 7
85%
April 8
69%
April 9
82%
April 10
54%
$31,679 Объем
April 1
$5,402 Объем
99%
April 2
$11,318 Объем
12%
April 3
$897 Объем
97%
April 4
$9,260 Объем
54%
April 5
$1,260 Объем
94%
April 6
$112 Объем
88%
April 7
$77 Объем
85%
April 8
$172 Объем
69%
April 9
$3,179 Объем
82%
April 10
$1 Объем
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting US military bases and infrastructure in Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, causing casualties, refinery disruptions, and heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE defenses intercepted 26 Iranian projectiles on April 2, while Kuwait reported strikes on oil facilities as recently as April 3. Gulf monarchies have condemned Tehran and are weighing offensive involvement amid fury over attacks, as Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait loom if escalation draws them in further; diplomatic talks remain stalled with no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Объем
$31,679Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting US military bases and infrastructure in Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, causing casualties, refinery disruptions, and heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE defenses intercepted 26 Iranian projectiles on April 2, while Kuwait reported strikes on oil facilities as recently as April 3. Gulf monarchies have condemned Tehran and are weighing offensive involvement amid fury over attacks, as Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait loom if escalation draws them in further; diplomatic talks remain stalled with no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$31,679Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting US military bases and infrastructure in Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, causing casualties, refinery disruptions, and heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE defenses intercepted 26 Iranian projectiles on April 2, while Kuwait reported strikes on oil facilities as recently as April 3. Gulf monarchies have condemned Tehran and are weighing offensive involvement amid fury over attacks, as Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait loom if escalation draws them in further; diplomatic talks remain stalled with no ceasefire in sight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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