Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts on March 8—days after his father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike—anchors his 44.9% trader consensus as frontrunner, bolstered by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) backing amid escalating conflict. Yet his reported injuries, including a foot wound and facial lacerations, coupled with no public appearances and recent official claims of full health due to security, temper confidence in his longevity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% odds reflect rising exiled opposition momentum from his March 28 CPAC address urging Western support for regime change, amid domestic dissent and US-Israel military pressures that could trigger leadership upheaval by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЛидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Моджтаба Хаменеи 44.9%
Реза Пехлеви 13%
Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 5.9%
Хассан Хомейни 5.3%
$5,581,913 Объем
$5,581,913 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Моджтаба Хаменеи
45%
Реза Пехлеви
13%
Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф
6%
Хассан Хомейни
5%
Нет главы государства
4%
Алиреза Арафи
3%
Хасан Рухани
3%
Масуд Пезешкиан
3%
Садег Лариджани
3%
Махмуд Ахмадинежад
1%
Аббас Арагчи
1%
Насир Хоссейни
1%
Али Асгар Хеджази
1%
Мухаммад Мирбакири
<1%
Хассан Шариатмадари
<1%
Марьям Раджави
<1%
Ахмад Вahidi
<1%
Али Мотахари
<1%
Мостафа Пурмохаммади
<1%
Мохаммад Хатами
<1%
Мохсен Араки
<1%
Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан
<1%
Навид Шомали
<1%
Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель
<1%
Садег Махсули
<1%
Саид Джалили
<1%
Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани
<1%
Массуд Раджави
<1%
Реза Пирзаде
<1%
Мустафа Хиджри
<1%
Моджтаба Хаменеи 44.9%
Реза Пехлеви 13%
Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 5.9%
Хассан Хомейни 5.3%
$5,581,913 Объем
$5,581,913 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Моджтаба Хаменеи
$956,615 Объем
45%
Реза Пехлеви
$120,849 Объем
13%
Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф
$157,778 Объем
6%
Хассан Хомейни
$665,497 Объем
5%
Нет главы государства
$359,812 Объем
4%
Алиреза Арафи
$767,960 Объем
3%
Хасан Рухани
$263,472 Объем
3%
Масуд Пезешкиан
$232,065 Объем
3%
Садег Лариджани
$168,628 Объем
3%
Махмуд Ахмадинежад
$44,217 Объем
1%
Аббас Арагчи
$88,245 Объем
1%
Насир Хоссейни
$10,541 Объем
1%
Али Асгар Хеджази
$70,561 Объем
1%
Мухаммад Мирбакири
$265,757 Объем
<1%
Хассан Шариатмадари
$140,598 Объем
<1%
Марьям Раджави
$236,127 Объем
<1%
Ахмад Вahidi
$186,457 Объем
<1%
Али Мотахари
$42,991 Объем
<1%
Мостафа Пурмохаммади
$56,684 Объем
<1%
Мохаммад Хатами
$221,642 Объем
<1%
Мохсен Араки
$24,010 Объем
<1%
Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан
$28,953 Объем
<1%
Навид Шомали
$49,573 Объем
<1%
Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель
$31,207 Объем
<1%
Садег Махсули
$43,680 Объем
<1%
Саид Джалили
$38,167 Объем
<1%
Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани
$14,697 Объем
<1%
Массуд Раджави
$18,797 Объем
<1%
Реза Пирзаде
$23,826 Объем
<1%
Мустафа Хиджри
$15,648 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts on March 8—days after his father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike—anchors his 44.9% trader consensus as frontrunner, bolstered by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) backing amid escalating conflict. Yet his reported injuries, including a foot wound and facial lacerations, coupled with no public appearances and recent official claims of full health due to security, temper confidence in his longevity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% odds reflect rising exiled opposition momentum from his March 28 CPAC address urging Western support for regime change, amid domestic dissent and US-Israel military pressures that could trigger leadership upheaval by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Объем
$5,581,913Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts on March 8—days after his father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike—anchors his 44.9% trader consensus as frontrunner, bolstered by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) backing amid escalating conflict. Yet his reported injuries, including a foot wound and facial lacerations, coupled with no public appearances and recent official claims of full health due to security, temper confidence in his longevity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% odds reflect rising exiled opposition momentum from his March 28 CPAC address urging Western support for regime change, amid domestic dissent and US-Israel military pressures that could trigger leadership upheaval by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$5,581,913Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts on March 8—days after his father Ali Khamenei's death in a February 28 Israeli airstrike—anchors his 44.9% trader consensus as frontrunner, bolstered by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) backing amid escalating conflict. Yet his reported injuries, including a foot wound and facial lacerations, coupled with no public appearances and recent official claims of full health due to security, temper confidence in his longevity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% odds reflect rising exiled opposition momentum from his March 28 CPAC address urging Western support for regime change, amid domestic dissent and US-Israel military pressures that could trigger leadership upheaval by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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