Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained counterterrorism airstrikes in Yemen against Houthis, Syria and Iraq versus ISIS and Iran-backed militias, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, plus one or two potential new theaters under the incoming Trump administration. Recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have prompted fresh US airstrikes this week, anchoring Middle East continuity, while Trump's explicit threats of military strikes on Mexican drug cartels if border cooperation falters differentiate the 9-country outcome (16%) from 8 (14%) and 10 (10%). Hawkish nominees like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary bolster escalation scenarios, but Tulsi Gabbard's DNI role signals de-escalation in Ukraine aid and endless wars, leaving support fluid pending post-inauguration executive actions and confirmation hearings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПротив скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
Против скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$672,251 Объем
$672,251 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
6
9%
7
29%
8
14%
9
16%
10
10%
11
5%
12
2%
13
2%
14
2%
15+
6%
7 28.9%
9 16.0%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$672,251 Объем
$672,251 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
6
$411,653 Объем
9%
7
$0 Объем
29%
8
$0 Объем
14%
9
$8,465 Объем
16%
10
$10,095 Объем
10%
11
$0 Объем
5%
12
$0 Объем
2%
13
$6,837 Объем
2%
14
$26,590 Объем
2%
15+
$48,768 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained counterterrorism airstrikes in Yemen against Houthis, Syria and Iraq versus ISIS and Iran-backed militias, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, plus one or two potential new theaters under the incoming Trump administration. Recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have prompted fresh US airstrikes this week, anchoring Middle East continuity, while Trump's explicit threats of military strikes on Mexican drug cartels if border cooperation falters differentiate the 9-country outcome (16%) from 8 (14%) and 10 (10%). Hawkish nominees like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary bolster escalation scenarios, but Tulsi Gabbard's DNI role signals de-escalation in Ukraine aid and endless wars, leaving support fluid pending post-inauguration executive actions and confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Объем
$672,251Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained counterterrorism airstrikes in Yemen against Houthis, Syria and Iraq versus ISIS and Iran-backed militias, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, plus one or two potential new theaters under the incoming Trump administration. Recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have prompted fresh US airstrikes this week, anchoring Middle East continuity, while Trump's explicit threats of military strikes on Mexican drug cartels if border cooperation falters differentiate the 9-country outcome (16%) from 8 (14%) and 10 (10%). Hawkish nominees like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary bolster escalation scenarios, but Tulsi Gabbard's DNI role signals de-escalation in Ukraine aid and endless wars, leaving support fluid pending post-inauguration executive actions and confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$672,251Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting sustained counterterrorism airstrikes in Yemen against Houthis, Syria and Iraq versus ISIS and Iran-backed militias, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, plus one or two potential new theaters under the incoming Trump administration. Recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have prompted fresh US airstrikes this week, anchoring Middle East continuity, while Trump's explicit threats of military strikes on Mexican drug cartels if border cooperation falters differentiate the 9-country outcome (16%) from 8 (14%) and 10 (10%). Hawkish nominees like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary bolster escalation scenarios, but Tulsi Gabbard's DNI role signals de-escalation in Ukraine aid and endless wars, leaving support fluid pending post-inauguration executive actions and confirmation hearings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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