Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 (41%), reflecting strikes already conducted on Syria (January border airstrikes), Lebanon (ongoing Hezbollah targets, including April 3 Beirut strikes), Iraq (February strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces), and Iran (intensified since the US-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure like April 4 petrochemical zones). Recent escalations, such as Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 29, have not prompted Israeli retaliation there, keeping expansion risks low per the wisdom of crowds. Five countries (28%) accounts for potential Yemen involvement, while diplomatic pressures and focus on current fronts cap higher tallies amid de-escalation signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4 40.9%
5 27.5%
6 12.7%
3 12.5%
$6,351,456 Объем
$6,351,456 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
13%
4
41%
5
28%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
2%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 40.9%
5 27.5%
6 12.7%
3 12.5%
$6,351,456 Объем
$6,351,456 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
$1,893,088 Объем
13%
4
$1,140,490 Объем
41%
5
$491,587 Объем
28%
6
$626,342 Объем
13%
7
$584,735 Объем
3%
8
$499,430 Объем
2%
9
$198,929 Объем
1%
10
$375,569 Объем
2%
11
$89,607 Объем
1%
12
$59,435 Объем
<1%
13
$131,382 Объем
<1%
14
$100,144 Объем
<1%
15+
$35,136 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 (41%), reflecting strikes already conducted on Syria (January border airstrikes), Lebanon (ongoing Hezbollah targets, including April 3 Beirut strikes), Iraq (February strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces), and Iran (intensified since the US-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure like April 4 petrochemical zones). Recent escalations, such as Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 29, have not prompted Israeli retaliation there, keeping expansion risks low per the wisdom of crowds. Five countries (28%) accounts for potential Yemen involvement, while diplomatic pressures and focus on current fronts cap higher tallies amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Объем
$6,351,456Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 (41%), reflecting strikes already conducted on Syria (January border airstrikes), Lebanon (ongoing Hezbollah targets, including April 3 Beirut strikes), Iraq (February strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces), and Iran (intensified since the US-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure like April 4 petrochemical zones). Recent escalations, such as Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 29, have not prompted Israeli retaliation there, keeping expansion risks low per the wisdom of crowds. Five countries (28%) accounts for potential Yemen involvement, while diplomatic pressures and focus on current fronts cap higher tallies amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$6,351,456Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 (41%), reflecting strikes already conducted on Syria (January border airstrikes), Lebanon (ongoing Hezbollah targets, including April 3 Beirut strikes), Iraq (February strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces), and Iran (intensified since the US-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure like April 4 petrochemical zones). Recent escalations, such as Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 29, have not prompted Israeli retaliation there, keeping expansion risks low per the wisdom of crowds. Five countries (28%) accounts for potential Yemen involvement, while diplomatic pressures and focus on current fronts cap higher tallies amid de-escalation signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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