Trader consensus favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting strikes already conducted against targets in Palestine (Gaza), Lebanon (Hezbollah areas), Syria, and Iran since the US-Israel airstrike campaign began on February 28 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. This positioning stems from over 3,500 confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and now economic targets, alongside routine operations in familiar theaters, without expansion to new nations despite provocations. In the past week, Yemen's Houthis resumed ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 28 and April 1–3, raising escalation risks to a fifth country but not yet prompting Israeli retaliation there. Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with uncertainty over further de-escalation or proxy involvement shaping lower odds for higher totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4 40.8%
5 28.0%
3 12.6%
6 12.4%
$6,350,536 Объем
$6,350,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
13%
4
41%
5
28%
6
12%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 40.8%
5 28.0%
3 12.6%
6 12.4%
$6,350,536 Объем
$6,350,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
$1,893,000 Объем
13%
4
$1,140,386 Объем
41%
5
$491,587 Объем
28%
6
$626,342 Объем
12%
7
$584,735 Объем
3%
8
$499,430 Объем
2%
9
$198,729 Объем
1%
10
$375,430 Объем
1%
11
$89,607 Объем
1%
12
$59,435 Объем
<1%
13
$131,326 Объем
<1%
14
$99,811 Объем
<1%
15+
$35,136 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting strikes already conducted against targets in Palestine (Gaza), Lebanon (Hezbollah areas), Syria, and Iran since the US-Israel airstrike campaign began on February 28 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. This positioning stems from over 3,500 confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and now economic targets, alongside routine operations in familiar theaters, without expansion to new nations despite provocations. In the past week, Yemen's Houthis resumed ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 28 and April 1–3, raising escalation risks to a fifth country but not yet prompting Israeli retaliation there. Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with uncertainty over further de-escalation or proxy involvement shaping lower odds for higher totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Объем
$6,350,536Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting strikes already conducted against targets in Palestine (Gaza), Lebanon (Hezbollah areas), Syria, and Iran since the US-Israel airstrike campaign began on February 28 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. This positioning stems from over 3,500 confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and now economic targets, alongside routine operations in familiar theaters, without expansion to new nations despite provocations. In the past week, Yemen's Houthis resumed ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 28 and April 1–3, raising escalation risks to a fifth country but not yet prompting Israeli retaliation there. Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with uncertainty over further de-escalation or proxy involvement shaping lower odds for higher totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$6,350,536Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting strikes already conducted against targets in Palestine (Gaza), Lebanon (Hezbollah areas), Syria, and Iran since the US-Israel airstrike campaign began on February 28 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. This positioning stems from over 3,500 confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and now economic targets, alongside routine operations in familiar theaters, without expansion to new nations despite provocations. In the past week, Yemen's Houthis resumed ballistic missile attacks on Israel on March 28 and April 1–3, raising escalation risks to a fifth country but not yet prompting Israeli retaliation there. Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with uncertainty over further de-escalation or proxy involvement shaping lower odds for higher totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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