Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4 37.1%
5 29.6%
3 12.7%
6 12.7%
$6,285,479 Объем
$6,285,479 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
13%
4
37%
5
30%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
2%
10
1%
11
1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 37.1%
5 29.6%
3 12.7%
6 12.7%
$6,285,479 Объем
$6,285,479 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3
$1,883,034 Объем
13%
4
$1,139,959 Объем
37%
5
$452,337 Объем
30%
6
$625,862 Объем
13%
7
$584,452 Объем
3%
8
$498,818 Объем
2%
9
$198,529 Объем
2%
10
$370,740 Объем
1%
11
$89,483 Объем
1%
12
$59,336 Объем
1%
13
$129,252 Объем
<1%
14
$94,518 Объем
<1%
15+
$33,610 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Объем
$6,285,479Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$6,285,479Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 4 countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 37%, with 5 close behind at 29.6%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid multi-front escalation. The February 28 US-Israel airstrikes campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and economic infrastructure—intensified by March 28 attacks on Arak and Tehran—has solidified Iran as a major front, while ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi launches from Yemen sustain those theaters. Routine Syrian raids provide the fourth. The tight race persists due to no new sovereign targets in the past week despite proxy retaliations, with separation possible via strikes in Iraq (Iran-backed militias) or diplomatic de-escalation limiting further expansion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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