Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability for peak U.S. CPI inflation exceeding 3% in 2026, driven by surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has complicated the prior trajectory of steady 2.4% year-over-year headline CPI in February and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot raised its 2026 PCE inflation median forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, reflecting heightened risks amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation, while 5-year TIPS breakeven rates hover near 2.56%. Five-year-ahead inflation swaps have jumped to 3%, signaling near-term upside pressures. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release (expected early April) and April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate rate cut expectations amid elevated uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$322,979 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Более 3%
98%
Более 3,5%
80%
Более 4%
45%
Более 5%
25%
Более 6%
13%
Выше 8%
8%
Более 10%
5%
$322,979 Объем
Более 3%
$208,380 Объем
98%
Более 3,5%
$30,162 Объем
80%
Более 4%
$51,415 Объем
45%
Более 5%
$9,834 Объем
25%
Более 6%
$6,250 Объем
13%
Выше 8%
$12,164 Объем
8%
Более 10%
$4,775 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability for peak U.S. CPI inflation exceeding 3% in 2026, driven by surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has complicated the prior trajectory of steady 2.4% year-over-year headline CPI in February and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot raised its 2026 PCE inflation median forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, reflecting heightened risks amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation, while 5-year TIPS breakeven rates hover near 2.56%. Five-year-ahead inflation swaps have jumped to 3%, signaling near-term upside pressures. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release (expected early April) and April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate rate cut expectations amid elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ET
Объем
$322,979Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability for peak U.S. CPI inflation exceeding 3% in 2026, driven by surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has complicated the prior trajectory of steady 2.4% year-over-year headline CPI in February and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot raised its 2026 PCE inflation median forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, reflecting heightened risks amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation, while 5-year TIPS breakeven rates hover near 2.56%. Five-year-ahead inflation swaps have jumped to 3%, signaling near-term upside pressures. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release (expected early April) and April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate rate cut expectations amid elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$322,979Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability for peak U.S. CPI inflation exceeding 3% in 2026, driven by surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has complicated the prior trajectory of steady 2.4% year-over-year headline CPI in February and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 18 dot plot raised its 2026 PCE inflation median forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, reflecting heightened risks amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation, while 5-year TIPS breakeven rates hover near 2.56%. Five-year-ahead inflation swaps have jumped to 3%, signaling near-term upside pressures. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release (expected early April) and April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate rate cut expectations amid elevated uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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