Incumbent Rep. Andrew Clyde dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for the GA-09 Republican primary on May 21, reflecting strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $500,000, and historical base rates where congressional incumbents secure renomination over 90% of the time in safe districts. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as endorsements from former President Trump or scandals—have disrupted this positioning, with recent internal polling showing Clyde at 48-52% support amid low challenger viability. Sam Couvillon (34.5%) and Gregg Poole (13.5%) trail despite grassroots efforts criticizing Clyde's record on border security and spending, but lack momentum shifts ahead of early voting. Late-breaking news or a high-profile endorsement could narrow the gap.