Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 62.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, reflecting his name recognition from the 2024 general election challenge to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, prior state House service, and local Waterville mayoral experience under the new post-redistricting map. Madison Sheahan trails at 15% amid Lucas County GOP residency requirement disputes following her January entry as former ICE deputy director, while state Rep. Josh Williams holds 14.8% despite a March 29 Right to Life forum straw poll surge but faces headwinds from explicit Facebook posts resurfacing April 2 and frontrunners' debate refusals. Voter registration closes April 6, with turnout key in this crowded field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДерек Меррин 57%
Джош Уильямс 15.0%
Мэдисон Шиэн 15%
Алеа Надим 7.6%
Дерек Меррин
57%
Джош Уильямс
15%
Мэдисон Шиэн
15%
Алеа Надим
8%
Уэйн Кинсел
7%
Энтони Кэмпбелл
1%
Джейкоб Фрост
<1%
Дерек Меррин 57%
Джош Уильямс 15.0%
Мэдисон Шиэн 15%
Алеа Надим 7.6%
Дерек Меррин
57%
Джош Уильямс
15%
Мэдисон Шиэн
15%
Алеа Надим
8%
Уэйн Кинсел
7%
Энтони Кэмпбелл
1%
Джейкоб Фрост
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 62.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, reflecting his name recognition from the 2024 general election challenge to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, prior state House service, and local Waterville mayoral experience under the new post-redistricting map. Madison Sheahan trails at 15% amid Lucas County GOP residency requirement disputes following her January entry as former ICE deputy director, while state Rep. Josh Williams holds 14.8% despite a March 29 Right to Life forum straw poll surge but faces headwinds from explicit Facebook posts resurfacing April 2 and frontrunners' debate refusals. Voter registration closes April 6, with turnout key in this crowded field.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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