Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 1360-1399 X posts (16% implied probability) for Elon Musk in April 2026, closely trailed by 1400-1439 (10.2%) and 1440-1479 (9.5%), reflecting his established high-volume posting rhythm of roughly 40-50 per day amid political discourse, Tesla updates, and meme culture engagement. Recent months show steady output—around 1,400 monthly posts—bolstered by X algorithm favoritism for his account and no signs of reduced activity despite executive roles like DOGE advisory. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential spikes from viral moments or controversies versus quieter periods if focus shifts to SpaceX launches or AI ventures; key differentiators include historical election-season surges and platform changes, with probabilities thinning sharply beyond 1,500 as sustained extremes prove rare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1360-1399 14.0%
1400–1439 10.5%
1480–1519 9.6%
1280–1319 9.6%
$4,312,713 Объем
$4,312,713 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140–159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240–259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340–359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400–419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440–459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540–559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120–1159
1%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280–1319
10%
1320-1359
7%
1360-1399
14%
1400–1439
11%
1440-1479
9%
1480–1519
10%
1520-1559
6%
1560–1599
4%
1600-1679
1%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1360-1399 14.0%
1400–1439 10.5%
1480–1519 9.6%
1280–1319 9.6%
$4,312,713 Объем
$4,312,713 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140–159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240–259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340–359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400–419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440–459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540–559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120–1159
1%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280–1319
10%
1320-1359
7%
1360-1399
14%
1400–1439
11%
1440-1479
9%
1480–1519
10%
1520-1559
6%
1560–1599
4%
1600-1679
1%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 1360-1399 X posts (16% implied probability) for Elon Musk in April 2026, closely trailed by 1400-1439 (10.2%) and 1440-1479 (9.5%), reflecting his established high-volume posting rhythm of roughly 40-50 per day amid political discourse, Tesla updates, and meme culture engagement. Recent months show steady output—around 1,400 monthly posts—bolstered by X algorithm favoritism for his account and no signs of reduced activity despite executive roles like DOGE advisory. Competitive dynamics hinge on potential spikes from viral moments or controversies versus quieter periods if focus shifts to SpaceX launches or AI ventures; key differentiators include historical election-season surges and platform changes, with probabilities thinning sharply beyond 1,500 as sustained extremes prove rare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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