China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, the lowest since 1991, reflecting persistent property sector headwinds and subdued domestic consumption despite 2025's 5% expansion. This aligns with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.5%, positioning the 4.0-5.0% outcome as trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, as fiscal stimulus—including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt—aims to stabilize real estate and boost demand. The 5.0-6.0% bracket at 25.4% reflects upside potential from export resilience and policy execution, though Q1 GDP data due in April and external trade risks could shift assessments amid structural rebalancing toward consumption-led growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 25.4%
6,0–7,0% 2.2%
3,0–4,0% <1%
$195,173 Объем
$195,173 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
73%
5,0–6,0%
25%
6,0–7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0%
1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 25.4%
6,0–7,0% 2.2%
3,0–4,0% <1%
$195,173 Объем
$195,173 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,622 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$26,146 Объем
1%
2,0–3,0%
$5,326 Объем
1%
3,0–4,0%
$6,079 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$10,652 Объем
73%
5,0–6,0%
$10,969 Объем
25%
6,0–7,0%
$17,898 Объем
2%
7,0–8,0%
$28,091 Объем
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,623 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$67,767 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, the lowest since 1991, reflecting persistent property sector headwinds and subdued domestic consumption despite 2025's 5% expansion. This aligns with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.5%, positioning the 4.0-5.0% outcome as trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, as fiscal stimulus—including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt—aims to stabilize real estate and boost demand. The 5.0-6.0% bracket at 25.4% reflects upside potential from export resilience and policy execution, though Q1 GDP data due in April and external trade risks could shift assessments amid structural rebalancing toward consumption-led growth.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$195,173Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, the lowest since 1991, reflecting persistent property sector headwinds and subdued domestic consumption despite 2025's 5% expansion. This aligns with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.5%, positioning the 4.0-5.0% outcome as trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, as fiscal stimulus—including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt—aims to stabilize real estate and boost demand. The 5.0-6.0% bracket at 25.4% reflects upside potential from export resilience and policy execution, though Q1 GDP data due in April and external trade risks could shift assessments amid structural rebalancing toward consumption-led growth.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$195,173Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, the lowest since 1991, reflecting persistent property sector headwinds and subdued domestic consumption despite 2025's 5% expansion. This aligns with IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.5%, positioning the 4.0-5.0% outcome as trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, as fiscal stimulus—including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and 1.3 trillion yuan in special debt—aims to stabilize real estate and boost demand. The 5.0-6.0% bracket at 25.4% reflects upside potential from export resilience and policy execution, though Q1 GDP data due in April and external trade risks could shift assessments amid structural rebalancing toward consumption-led growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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