China's National People's Congress set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% in early March, the lowest in decades, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 4.0-5.0% at 71.5% implied probability and major forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and Goldman Sachs (4.8%). This reflects 2025's 5.0% achievement via export surges amid property weakness and deflation pressures, now tempered by fiscal expansion and a stronger-than-expected January-February start with rising consumption and investment. Global trade tensions and domestic rebalancing risks cap upside, keeping 5.0-6.0% at 26.8%, while Q1 GDP data due mid-April could refine assessments ahead of full-year outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 26.7%
6,0–7,0% 1.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.3%
$197,646 Объем
$197,646 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
72%
5,0–6,0%
27%
6,0–7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0%
1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 26.7%
6,0–7,0% 1.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.3%
$197,646 Объем
$197,646 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,696 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$26,220 Объем
1%
2,0–3,0%
$5,400 Объем
1%
3,0–4,0%
$6,152 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$11,821 Объем
72%
5,0–6,0%
$11,235 Объем
27%
6,0–7,0%
$18,419 Объем
2%
7,0–8,0%
$28,165 Объем
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,697 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$67,841 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% in early March, the lowest in decades, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 4.0-5.0% at 71.5% implied probability and major forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and Goldman Sachs (4.8%). This reflects 2025's 5.0% achievement via export surges amid property weakness and deflation pressures, now tempered by fiscal expansion and a stronger-than-expected January-February start with rising consumption and investment. Global trade tensions and domestic rebalancing risks cap upside, keeping 5.0-6.0% at 26.8%, while Q1 GDP data due mid-April could refine assessments ahead of full-year outcomes.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$197,646Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% in early March, the lowest in decades, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 4.0-5.0% at 71.5% implied probability and major forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and Goldman Sachs (4.8%). This reflects 2025's 5.0% achievement via export surges amid property weakness and deflation pressures, now tempered by fiscal expansion and a stronger-than-expected January-February start with rising consumption and investment. Global trade tensions and domestic rebalancing risks cap upside, keeping 5.0-6.0% at 26.8%, while Q1 GDP data due mid-April could refine assessments ahead of full-year outcomes.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$197,646Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's National People's Congress set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% in early March, the lowest in decades, aligning closely with trader consensus favoring 4.0-5.0% at 71.5% implied probability and major forecasts from IMF (4.5%), World Bank (4.4%), and Goldman Sachs (4.8%). This reflects 2025's 5.0% achievement via export surges amid property weakness and deflation pressures, now tempered by fiscal expansion and a stronger-than-expected January-February start with rising consumption and investment. Global trade tensions and domestic rebalancing risks cap upside, keeping 5.0-6.0% at 26.8%, while Q1 GDP data due mid-April could refine assessments ahead of full-year outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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