Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 92.5% in California's 8th Congressional District House race, driven by long-serving incumbent John Garamendi's entrenched advantages in this safely Democratic seat (Cook Solid D, D+19 partisan voting index). Garamendi, who captured 74% in the 2024 general and boasts over $1.2 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfs three Democratic primary challengers and lone Republican Rudy Recile financially. The district delivered Kamala Harris a 65-32% margin in 2024, underscoring strong voter registration and turnout edges. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds reflect structural incumbency and lean stability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late shifts could arise from a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, an unforeseen scandal, or a potent national midterm wave.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-08 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-08 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$11,966 Объем
$11,966 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
7%
$11,966 Объем
$11,966 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$5,698 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$6,269 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 92.5% in California's 8th Congressional District House race, driven by long-serving incumbent John Garamendi's entrenched advantages in this safely Democratic seat (Cook Solid D, D+19 partisan voting index). Garamendi, who captured 74% in the 2024 general and boasts over $1.2 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfs three Democratic primary challengers and lone Republican Rudy Recile financially. The district delivered Kamala Harris a 65-32% margin in 2024, underscoring strong voter registration and turnout edges. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds reflect structural incumbency and lean stability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late shifts could arise from a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, an unforeseen scandal, or a potent national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$11,966Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 92.5% in California's 8th Congressional District House race, driven by long-serving incumbent John Garamendi's entrenched advantages in this safely Democratic seat (Cook Solid D, D+19 partisan voting index). Garamendi, who captured 74% in the 2024 general and boasts over $1.2 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfs three Democratic primary challengers and lone Republican Rudy Recile financially. The district delivered Kamala Harris a 65-32% margin in 2024, underscoring strong voter registration and turnout edges. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds reflect structural incumbency and lean stability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late shifts could arise from a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, an unforeseen scandal, or a potent national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,966Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 92.5% in California's 8th Congressional District House race, driven by long-serving incumbent John Garamendi's entrenched advantages in this safely Democratic seat (Cook Solid D, D+19 partisan voting index). Garamendi, who captured 74% in the 2024 general and boasts over $1.2 million cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfs three Democratic primary challengers and lone Republican Rudy Recile financially. The district delivered Kamala Harris a 65-32% margin in 2024, underscoring strong voter registration and turnout edges. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds reflect structural incumbency and lean stability ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Late shifts could arise from a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, an unforeseen scandal, or a potent national midterm wave.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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