Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most seats in the six National Assembly by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by consistent polling leads in key districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu A (DP 47-50%) and Gyeonggi's Goyang-gu Eul (DP 44%), coupled with national party support polls showing DP at 46-53% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-31% in late March surveys from Realmeter, NBS, and STI. President Lee Jae-myung's strong approval ratings further solidify DP's position in these mostly former DP strongholds vacated by lawmakers pursuing local or executive roles. Realistic challenges include scandals engulfing DP candidates like Kim Yong in Ansan, PPP surges in conservative Ulsan Nam-gu A, or splinter votes for Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) or Reform Party (RP), though wide margins and momentum make upsets unlikely absent major late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДовыборы в Южной Корее: победитель партии
Довыборы в Южной Корее: победитель партии
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.0%
Партия реформ (РП) 2.8%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP) 2.6%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
2%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
95%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
3%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
2%
Партия реформ (РП)
3%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.0%
Партия реформ (РП) 2.8%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP) 2.6%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
$0 Объем
2%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
$0 Объем
95%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
$0 Объем
3%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
$0 Объем
2%
Партия реформ (РП)
$0 Объем
3%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most seats in the six National Assembly by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by consistent polling leads in key districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu A (DP 47-50%) and Gyeonggi's Goyang-gu Eul (DP 44%), coupled with national party support polls showing DP at 46-53% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-31% in late March surveys from Realmeter, NBS, and STI. President Lee Jae-myung's strong approval ratings further solidify DP's position in these mostly former DP strongholds vacated by lawmakers pursuing local or executive roles. Realistic challenges include scandals engulfing DP candidates like Kim Yong in Ansan, PPP surges in conservative Ulsan Nam-gu A, or splinter votes for Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) or Reform Party (RP), though wide margins and momentum make upsets unlikely absent major late developments.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Открытие рынка: Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most seats in the six National Assembly by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by consistent polling leads in key districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu A (DP 47-50%) and Gyeonggi's Goyang-gu Eul (DP 44%), coupled with national party support polls showing DP at 46-53% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-31% in late March surveys from Realmeter, NBS, and STI. President Lee Jae-myung's strong approval ratings further solidify DP's position in these mostly former DP strongholds vacated by lawmakers pursuing local or executive roles. Realistic challenges include scandals engulfing DP candidates like Kim Yong in Ansan, PPP surges in conservative Ulsan Nam-gu A, or splinter votes for Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) or Reform Party (RP), though wide margins and momentum make upsets unlikely absent major late developments.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most seats in the six National Assembly by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by consistent polling leads in key districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu A (DP 47-50%) and Gyeonggi's Goyang-gu Eul (DP 44%), coupled with national party support polls showing DP at 46-53% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-31% in late March surveys from Realmeter, NBS, and STI. President Lee Jae-myung's strong approval ratings further solidify DP's position in these mostly former DP strongholds vacated by lawmakers pursuing local or executive roles. Realistic challenges include scandals engulfing DP candidates like Kim Yong in Ansan, PPP surges in conservative Ulsan Nam-gu A, or splinter votes for Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) or Reform Party (RP), though wide margins and momentum make upsets unlikely absent major late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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