Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) a commanding 95% implied probability of securing the most National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026 by-elections, contested alongside local elections across at least four constituencies. This reflects DP's ruling party incumbency under President Lee Jae-myung, consistent double-digit national polling leads—such as recent Gallup Korea (March 24-26) and NBS (March 23-25) surveys showing DP at 46% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-19%—and PPP's ongoing candidate shortages after heavyweights skipped primaries (reported March 9). Local polls, like Yeonsu-A (DP 48% vs. PPP 36%), further bolster expectations. Potential challenges include turnout surges in conservative strongholds, DP candidate controversies, or unexpected gains by Rebuilding Korea Party or Reform Party.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДовыборы в Южной Корее: победитель партии
Довыборы в Южной Корее: победитель партии
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.0%
Партия реформ (РП) 2.8%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP) 2.6%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
2%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
95%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
3%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
2%
Партия реформ (РП)
3%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.0%
Партия реформ (РП) 2.8%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP) 2.6%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
$0 Объем
2%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
$0 Объем
95%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
$0 Объем
3%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
$0 Объем
2%
Партия реформ (РП)
$0 Объем
3%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) a commanding 95% implied probability of securing the most National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026 by-elections, contested alongside local elections across at least four constituencies. This reflects DP's ruling party incumbency under President Lee Jae-myung, consistent double-digit national polling leads—such as recent Gallup Korea (March 24-26) and NBS (March 23-25) surveys showing DP at 46% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-19%—and PPP's ongoing candidate shortages after heavyweights skipped primaries (reported March 9). Local polls, like Yeonsu-A (DP 48% vs. PPP 36%), further bolster expectations. Potential challenges include turnout surges in conservative strongholds, DP candidate controversies, or unexpected gains by Rebuilding Korea Party or Reform Party.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Открытие рынка: Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) a commanding 95% implied probability of securing the most National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026 by-elections, contested alongside local elections across at least four constituencies. This reflects DP's ruling party incumbency under President Lee Jae-myung, consistent double-digit national polling leads—such as recent Gallup Korea (March 24-26) and NBS (March 23-25) surveys showing DP at 46% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-19%—and PPP's ongoing candidate shortages after heavyweights skipped primaries (reported March 9). Local polls, like Yeonsu-A (DP 48% vs. PPP 36%), further bolster expectations. Potential challenges include turnout surges in conservative strongholds, DP candidate controversies, or unexpected gains by Rebuilding Korea Party or Reform Party.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) a commanding 95% implied probability of securing the most National Assembly seats in the June 3, 2026 by-elections, contested alongside local elections across at least four constituencies. This reflects DP's ruling party incumbency under President Lee Jae-myung, consistent double-digit national polling leads—such as recent Gallup Korea (March 24-26) and NBS (March 23-25) surveys showing DP at 46% versus People Power Party (PPP) at 18-19%—and PPP's ongoing candidate shortages after heavyweights skipped primaries (reported March 9). Local polls, like Yeonsu-A (DP 48% vs. PPP 36%), further bolster expectations. Potential challenges include turnout surges in conservative strongholds, DP candidate controversies, or unexpected gains by Rebuilding Korea Party or Reform Party.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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