The US military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involving airstrikes and special operations that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marked a regime change amid prior sanctions over drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Three months later, relations have de-escalated sharply: the US lifted sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez this week, reopened its Caracas embassy on March 30, and announced diplomatic normalization in early March. No additional strikes have occurred, with focus shifting to transitional stability, economic protests for wages and pensions, and energy reforms. Trader sentiment reflects this diplomatic thaw reducing escalation risks, though political consolidation or unrest could prompt reevaluation ahead of potential elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$2,527,060 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
31 декабря
13%
$2,527,060 Объем
31 декабря
$485,758 Объем
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involving airstrikes and special operations that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marked a regime change amid prior sanctions over drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Three months later, relations have de-escalated sharply: the US lifted sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez this week, reopened its Caracas embassy on March 30, and announced diplomatic normalization in early March. No additional strikes have occurred, with focus shifting to transitional stability, economic protests for wages and pensions, and energy reforms. Trader sentiment reflects this diplomatic thaw reducing escalation risks, though political consolidation or unrest could prompt reevaluation ahead of potential elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$2,527,060Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involving airstrikes and special operations that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marked a regime change amid prior sanctions over drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Three months later, relations have de-escalated sharply: the US lifted sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez this week, reopened its Caracas embassy on March 30, and announced diplomatic normalization in early March. No additional strikes have occurred, with focus shifting to transitional stability, economic protests for wages and pensions, and energy reforms. Trader sentiment reflects this diplomatic thaw reducing escalation risks, though political consolidation or unrest could prompt reevaluation ahead of potential elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,527,060Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
The US military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involving airstrikes and special operations that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marked a regime change amid prior sanctions over drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Three months later, relations have de-escalated sharply: the US lifted sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez this week, reopened its Caracas embassy on March 30, and announced diplomatic normalization in early March. No additional strikes have occurred, with focus shifting to transitional stability, economic protests for wages and pensions, and energy reforms. Trader sentiment reflects this diplomatic thaw reducing escalation risks, though political consolidation or unrest could prompt reevaluation ahead of potential elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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