**US-Venezuela relations have de-escalated sharply following the January 3, 2026, US military intervention in Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez.** In the past 48 hours, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, marking a key diplomatic thaw aimed at stabilizing the country and resuming oil exports amid normalization efforts. No further military actions or escalatory rhetoric have emerged in the last 30 days, with trader consensus reflecting low odds for additional strikes due to this shift from confrontation to engagement. Upcoming Venezuelan political transitions, including potential opposition involvement from figures like María Corina Machado, could influence stability, but current signals prioritize economic recovery over military escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$2,526,401 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
31 марта
<1%
31 декабря
21%
$2,526,401 Объем
31 марта
$167,757 Объем
<1%
31 декабря
$485,100 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US-Venezuela relations have de-escalated sharply following the January 3, 2026, US military intervention in Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez.** In the past 48 hours, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, marking a key diplomatic thaw aimed at stabilizing the country and resuming oil exports amid normalization efforts. No further military actions or escalatory rhetoric have emerged in the last 30 days, with trader consensus reflecting low odds for additional strikes due to this shift from confrontation to engagement. Upcoming Venezuelan political transitions, including potential opposition involvement from figures like María Corina Machado, could influence stability, but current signals prioritize economic recovery over military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Объем
$2,526,401Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US-Venezuela relations have de-escalated sharply following the January 3, 2026, US military intervention in Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez.** In the past 48 hours, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, marking a key diplomatic thaw aimed at stabilizing the country and resuming oil exports amid normalization efforts. No further military actions or escalatory rhetoric have emerged in the last 30 days, with trader consensus reflecting low odds for additional strikes due to this shift from confrontation to engagement. Upcoming Venezuelan political transitions, including potential opposition involvement from figures like María Corina Machado, could influence stability, but current signals prioritize economic recovery over military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,526,401Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Venezuela relations have de-escalated sharply following the January 3, 2026, US military intervention in Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, paving the way for interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez.** In the past 48 hours, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Rodríguez, marking a key diplomatic thaw aimed at stabilizing the country and resuming oil exports amid normalization efforts. No further military actions or escalatory rhetoric have emerged in the last 30 days, with trader consensus reflecting low odds for additional strikes due to this shift from confrontation to engagement. Upcoming Venezuelan political transitions, including potential opposition involvement from figures like María Corina Machado, could influence stability, but current signals prioritize economic recovery over military escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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