Following the January 3, 2026 US strikes under Operation Absolute Resolve that captured Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated extensively with Washington, enacting hydrocarbon reforms, releasing over 600 political prisoners, and normalizing ties via US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions relief on Rodríguez by April 1. The IMF and World Bank resumed dealings on April 17 amid surging oil exports to the US. No further military actions have materialized—Trump canceled a second wave due to compliance—and no escalations appear in the past 30 days. Traders assess low risks of renewed strikes absent instability from loyalist holdouts, cartel resurgence, or election delays beyond the interim's exceeded 90-day cap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,531,326 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
31 декабря
15%
$2,531,326 Объем
31 декабря
$490,025 Объем
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026 US strikes under Operation Absolute Resolve that captured Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated extensively with Washington, enacting hydrocarbon reforms, releasing over 600 political prisoners, and normalizing ties via US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions relief on Rodríguez by April 1. The IMF and World Bank resumed dealings on April 17 amid surging oil exports to the US. No further military actions have materialized—Trump canceled a second wave due to compliance—and no escalations appear in the past 30 days. Traders assess low risks of renewed strikes absent instability from loyalist holdouts, cartel resurgence, or election delays beyond the interim's exceeded 90-day cap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Объем
$2,531,326Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026 US strikes under Operation Absolute Resolve that captured Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated extensively with Washington, enacting hydrocarbon reforms, releasing over 600 political prisoners, and normalizing ties via US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions relief on Rodríguez by April 1. The IMF and World Bank resumed dealings on April 17 amid surging oil exports to the US. No further military actions have materialized—Trump canceled a second wave due to compliance—and no escalations appear in the past 30 days. Traders assess low risks of renewed strikes absent instability from loyalist holdouts, cartel resurgence, or election delays beyond the interim's exceeded 90-day cap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,531,326Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the January 3, 2026 US strikes under Operation Absolute Resolve that captured Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated extensively with Washington, enacting hydrocarbon reforms, releasing over 600 political prisoners, and normalizing ties via US embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions relief on Rodríguez by April 1. The IMF and World Bank resumed dealings on April 17 amid surging oil exports to the US. No further military actions have materialized—Trump canceled a second wave due to compliance—and no escalations appear in the past 30 days. Traders assess low risks of renewed strikes absent instability from loyalist holdouts, cartel resurgence, or election delays beyond the interim's exceeded 90-day cap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы