The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОчередное понижение рейтинга долга США до 2027 года?
Очередное понижение рейтинга долга США до 2027 года?
Да
$10,721 Объем
$10,721 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$10,721 Объем
$10,721 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Объем
$10,721Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$10,721Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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