Major credit rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt following Moody’s one-notch downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025 and prior moves by S&P and Fitch to AA+, embedding the 79.5% market-implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public approaching 120% of GDP by 2036, remain key rating challenges, yet the U.S. economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and deep capital markets provide resilience. Trader consensus reflects the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025, though November 2026 mid-term elections and sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP represent potential swing factors at future review dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОчередное понижение рейтинга долга США до 2027 года?
Очередное понижение рейтинга долга США до 2027 года?
Да
$10,721 Объем
$10,721 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$10,721 Объем
$10,721 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Major credit rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt following Moody’s one-notch downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025 and prior moves by S&P and Fitch to AA+, embedding the 79.5% market-implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public approaching 120% of GDP by 2036, remain key rating challenges, yet the U.S. economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and deep capital markets provide resilience. Trader consensus reflects the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025, though November 2026 mid-term elections and sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP represent potential swing factors at future review dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Объем
$10,721Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Major credit rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt following Moody’s one-notch downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025 and prior moves by S&P and Fitch to AA+, embedding the 79.5% market-implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public approaching 120% of GDP by 2036, remain key rating challenges, yet the U.S. economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and deep capital markets provide resilience. Trader consensus reflects the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025, though November 2026 mid-term elections and sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP represent potential swing factors at future review dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$10,721Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major credit rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt following Moody’s one-notch downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025 and prior moves by S&P and Fitch to AA+, embedding the 79.5% market-implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public approaching 120% of GDP by 2036, remain key rating challenges, yet the U.S. economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and deep capital markets provide resilience. Trader consensus reflects the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025, though November 2026 mid-term elections and sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP represent potential swing factors at future review dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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