Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in August 2026 have maintained the U.S. long-term sovereign rating at AA+ with stable outlooks, citing economic resilience, dollar reserve status, and tariff-supported revenues that offset elevated deficits. Moody’s Aa1 rating, following its 2025 action, carries a comparable stable outlook. These assessments align with the absence of near-term catalysts such as debt-ceiling brinkmanship or major fiscal disruptions, as the next statutory limit contact is projected for mid-2027 and a continuing resolution has extended funding through December 2026. Rating agencies have signaled limited near-term movement, with stable outlooks reflecting that the 2023 Fitch and prior downgrades already incorporated structural fiscal pressures. Traders price an 91% probability against another downgrade before year-end 2026 on this basis.
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