Trader sentiment on U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026 clusters around elevated levels, with market-implied probabilities of 40% for 4.5%+ narrowly leading 35% for 4.0-4.4%, reflecting geopolitical shocks offsetting prior disinflation. The Bank of England's March 2026 MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75%, revising forecasts sharply higher—CPI now around 3% in Q2 (versus 2.1% pre-conflict) and above 3% for much of the year—due to Middle East tensions (Israel-U.S.-Iran) spiking Brent crude over $100/barrel (+60%) and UK gas futures 35-40%. February CPI held at 3.0% pre-war (core 3.2%, services 4.3%), but public long-term expectations surged to 4.5%. Differentiators include energy shock persistence versus wage cooling (3.3% growth) and second-round effects; watch March CPI (April 22) and April 30 MPC for swings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoInflação Anual do Reino Unido 2026
Inflação Anual do Reino Unido 2026
2,0–2,4% 26%
2,5–2,9% 23%
3,5–3,9% 17%
<1,0% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jan 2027
<1,0%
7%
1,0–1,4%
6%
1,5–1,9%
21%
2,0–2,4%
26%
2,5–2,9%
23%
3,5–3,9%
11%
4,0-4,4%
35%
4,5%+
40%
2,0–2,4% 26%
2,5–2,9% 23%
3,5–3,9% 17%
<1,0% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jan 2027
<1,0%
$0 Vol.
7%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
6%
1,5–1,9%
$448 Vol.
21%
2,0–2,4%
$267 Vol.
26%
2,5–2,9%
$350 Vol.
23%
3,5–3,9%
$0 Vol.
11%
4,0-4,4%
$0 Vol.
35%
4,5%+
$243 Vol.
40%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader sentiment on U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026 clusters around elevated levels, with market-implied probabilities of 40% for 4.5%+ narrowly leading 35% for 4.0-4.4%, reflecting geopolitical shocks offsetting prior disinflation. The Bank of England's March 2026 MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75%, revising forecasts sharply higher—CPI now around 3% in Q2 (versus 2.1% pre-conflict) and above 3% for much of the year—due to Middle East tensions (Israel-U.S.-Iran) spiking Brent crude over $100/barrel (+60%) and UK gas futures 35-40%. February CPI held at 3.0% pre-war (core 3.2%, services 4.3%), but public long-term expectations surged to 4.5%. Differentiators include energy shock persistence versus wage cooling (3.3% growth) and second-round effects; watch March CPI (April 22) and April 30 MPC for swings.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,309Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader sentiment on U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026 clusters around elevated levels, with market-implied probabilities of 40% for 4.5%+ narrowly leading 35% for 4.0-4.4%, reflecting geopolitical shocks offsetting prior disinflation. The Bank of England's March 2026 MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75%, revising forecasts sharply higher—CPI now around 3% in Q2 (versus 2.1% pre-conflict) and above 3% for much of the year—due to Middle East tensions (Israel-U.S.-Iran) spiking Brent crude over $100/barrel (+60%) and UK gas futures 35-40%. February CPI held at 3.0% pre-war (core 3.2%, services 4.3%), but public long-term expectations surged to 4.5%. Differentiators include energy shock persistence versus wage cooling (3.3% growth) and second-round effects; watch March CPI (April 22) and April 30 MPC for swings.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$1,309Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026 clusters around elevated levels, with market-implied probabilities of 40% for 4.5%+ narrowly leading 35% for 4.0-4.4%, reflecting geopolitical shocks offsetting prior disinflation. The Bank of England's March 2026 MPC unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75%, revising forecasts sharply higher—CPI now around 3% in Q2 (versus 2.1% pre-conflict) and above 3% for much of the year—due to Middle East tensions (Israel-U.S.-Iran) spiking Brent crude over $100/barrel (+60%) and UK gas futures 35-40%. February CPI held at 3.0% pre-war (core 3.2%, services 4.3%), but public long-term expectations surged to 4.5%. Differentiators include energy shock persistence versus wage cooling (3.3% growth) and second-round effects; watch March CPI (April 22) and April 30 MPC for swings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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