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Política·Primárias

Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18

icon for Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18
Política·Primárias

Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18

Christian Menefee 90.7%

Al Green 9.4%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 Vol.

Christian Menefee 90.7%

Al Green 9.4%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$16,494 Vol.

91%

Al Green

$4,637 Vol.

9%

Gretchen Brown

$3,536 Vol.

<1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,716 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 90.6% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency advantage after winning the district's special election in February, superior fundraising totaling $3.2 million versus Al Green's $1.2 million, and consistent poll leads including a recent NYT aggregate showing him ahead 41%-35%. Recent catalysts include Menefee's composed performance in the May 4 debate amid Green's attacks on his donor ties, endorsements from Houston Chronicle and local Democrats, and momentum from his Special Elections Timeliness Act introduction amid voting rights concerns post-Supreme Court ruling. Green's long tenure since 2005 and backers like Judge Lina Hidalgo provide a base, but redistricting—forcing this incumbent clash in the majority-Black Houston district—bolsters Menefee's edge; challenges could arise from late Green turnout surge, scandal, or attack ads swaying undecideds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,383
Data de Término
26 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 90.6% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency advantage after winning the district's special election in February, superior fundraising totaling $3.2 million versus Al Green's $1.2 million, and consistent poll leads including a recent NYT aggregate showing him ahead 41%-35%. Recent catalysts include Menefee's composed performance in the May 4 debate amid Green's attacks on his donor ties, endorsements from Houston Chronicle and local Democrats, and momentum from his Special Elections Timeliness Act introduction amid voting rights concerns post-Supreme Court ruling. Green's long tenure since 2005 and backers like Judge Lina Hidalgo provide a base, but redistricting—forcing this incumbent clash in the majority-Black Houston district—bolsters Menefee's edge; challenges could arise from late Green turnout surge, scandal, or attack ads swaying undecideds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,383
Data de Término
26 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christian Menefee" at 91%, followed by "Al Green" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" has generated $27.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" is "Christian Menefee" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas do TX-18" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.