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Speaker of the House after the midterms?

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Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 85%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Katherine Clark 6%

Steve Scalise 4.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Hakeem Jeffries 85%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Katherine Clark 6%

Steve Scalise 4.3%

Polymarket
NOVO
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Hakeem Jeffries

$190 Vol.

85%

Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Katherine Clark

$55 Vol.

6%

Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Pete Aguilar

$65 Vol.

2%

Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Jim Jordan

$88 Vol.

6%

Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Steve Scalise

$55 Vol.

4%

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? icon

Mike Johnson

$65 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker following the 2026 midterms, driven by sustained Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averages—D +5.6 as of April 17 per Nate Silver's tracker, steady over the past week amid President Trump's midterm penalty dynamics. This implies Democrats flipping the GOP's narrow House majority by gaining just a handful of seats in battleground districts. Jeffries, as House Minority Leader, stands as the presumptive Democratic nominee with unified caucus support, while secondary Democratic options like Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar trail far behind. Republican contenders such as Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and incumbent Mike Johnson reflect slim odds of retaining control, per aligned Polymarket pricing on House majority at 85% Democrats. Key upcoming catalysts include special elections, primaries, and further polling shifts before November voting.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$517
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker following the 2026 midterms, driven by sustained Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averages—D +5.6 as of April 17 per Nate Silver's tracker, steady over the past week amid President Trump's midterm penalty dynamics. This implies Democrats flipping the GOP's narrow House majority by gaining just a handful of seats in battleground districts. Jeffries, as House Minority Leader, stands as the presumptive Democratic nominee with unified caucus support, while secondary Democratic options like Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar trail far behind. Republican contenders such as Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and incumbent Mike Johnson reflect slim odds of retaining control, per aligned Polymarket pricing on House majority at 85% Democrats. Key upcoming catalysts include special elections, primaries, and further polling shifts before November voting.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$517
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 85%, followed by "Katherine Clark" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Speaker of the House after the midterms?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Katherine Clark" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.