Generic ballot polling averages as of early April 2026 show Democrats leading Republicans by 5-6 points across aggregators like RealClearPolling (D+6.0) and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin (D+5.5), driving elevated trader probabilities for Democratic House popular vote margins of 6-10% while pricing competitive Republican edges of 0-2% and uncertainty in "Other." March surveys reflected a modest narrowing of the Democratic advantage—from Quinnipiac's D+11 to Reuters/Ipsos D+2—amid President Trump's approval dipping below zero, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon, and persistent mortgage rate hikes pressuring incumbents. Historical midterm patterns favor the out-of-power party, tempered by Republican-friendly redistricting, with April special elections in Georgia-14 and New Jersey-11 poised as key bellwethers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 30%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Republicans 0-2% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 Vol.
$27,856 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrats 16%+
9%
Democrats 14-16%
8%
Democrats 12-14%
9%
Democrats 10-12%
12%
Democrats 8-10%
30%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
18%
Democrats 2-4%
12%
Democrats 0-2%
9%
Republicans 0-2%
16%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
11%
Democrats 8-10% 30%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Republicans 0-2% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 Vol.
$27,856 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
9%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
8%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
9%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
12%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
30%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
18%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Vol.
12%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
9%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
16%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,691 Vol.
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Generic ballot polling averages as of early April 2026 show Democrats leading Republicans by 5-6 points across aggregators like RealClearPolling (D+6.0) and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin (D+5.5), driving elevated trader probabilities for Democratic House popular vote margins of 6-10% while pricing competitive Republican edges of 0-2% and uncertainty in "Other." March surveys reflected a modest narrowing of the Democratic advantage—from Quinnipiac's D+11 to Reuters/Ipsos D+2—amid President Trump's approval dipping below zero, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon, and persistent mortgage rate hikes pressuring incumbents. Historical midterm patterns favor the out-of-power party, tempered by Republican-friendly redistricting, with April special elections in Georgia-14 and New Jersey-11 poised as key bellwethers.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$27,856Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Generic ballot polling averages as of early April 2026 show Democrats leading Republicans by 5-6 points across aggregators like RealClearPolling (D+6.0) and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin (D+5.5), driving elevated trader probabilities for Democratic House popular vote margins of 6-10% while pricing competitive Republican edges of 0-2% and uncertainty in "Other." March surveys reflected a modest narrowing of the Democratic advantage—from Quinnipiac's D+11 to Reuters/Ipsos D+2—amid President Trump's approval dipping below zero, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon, and persistent mortgage rate hikes pressuring incumbents. Historical midterm patterns favor the out-of-power party, tempered by Republican-friendly redistricting, with April special elections in Georgia-14 and New Jersey-11 poised as key bellwethers.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$27,856Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Generic ballot polling averages as of early April 2026 show Democrats leading Republicans by 5-6 points across aggregators like RealClearPolling (D+6.0) and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin (D+5.5), driving elevated trader probabilities for Democratic House popular vote margins of 6-10% while pricing competitive Republican edges of 0-2% and uncertainty in "Other." March surveys reflected a modest narrowing of the Democratic advantage—from Quinnipiac's D+11 to Reuters/Ipsos D+2—amid President Trump's approval dipping below zero, gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon, and persistent mortgage rate hikes pressuring incumbents. Historical midterm patterns favor the out-of-power party, tempered by Republican-friendly redistricting, with April special elections in Georgia-14 and New Jersey-11 poised as key bellwethers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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