Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.2% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral peace talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive along the front line. Recent developments, including Moscow's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—which Kyiv firmly rejects—and a "situational pause" in negotiations due to Middle East escalations like the Iran conflict, have entrenched hardline positions. Continued airstrikes, drone attacks, and ground advances by both sides underscore active hostilities, with no breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. While new U.S.-Russia talks could emerge soon, a sudden diplomatic concession or de-escalation signal would be required to shift odds meaningfully before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até 30 de abril de 2026?
Cessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até 30 de abril de 2026?
Sim
$1,041,487 Vol.
$1,041,487 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sim
$1,041,487 Vol.
$1,041,487 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.2% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral peace talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive along the front line. Recent developments, including Moscow's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—which Kyiv firmly rejects—and a "situational pause" in negotiations due to Middle East escalations like the Iran conflict, have entrenched hardline positions. Continued airstrikes, drone attacks, and ground advances by both sides underscore active hostilities, with no breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. While new U.S.-Russia talks could emerge soon, a sudden diplomatic concession or de-escalation signal would be required to shift odds meaningfully before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,041,487Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.2% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral peace talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive along the front line. Recent developments, including Moscow's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—which Kyiv firmly rejects—and a "situational pause" in negotiations due to Middle East escalations like the Iran conflict, have entrenched hardline positions. Continued airstrikes, drone attacks, and ground advances by both sides underscore active hostilities, with no breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. While new U.S.-Russia talks could emerge soon, a sudden diplomatic concession or de-escalation signal would be required to shift odds meaningfully before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,041,487Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.2% against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral peace talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive along the front line. Recent developments, including Moscow's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—which Kyiv firmly rejects—and a "situational pause" in negotiations due to Middle East escalations like the Iran conflict, have entrenched hardline positions. Continued airstrikes, drone attacks, and ground advances by both sides underscore active hostilities, with no breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. While new U.S.-Russia talks could emerge soon, a sudden diplomatic concession or de-escalation signal would be required to shift odds meaningfully before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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