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Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?

Market icon

Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?

<4 milhões de km² 38%

4,0-4,2 milhões km² 14.5%

4,4-4,6 milhões km² 7.3%

4,2-4,4 milhões km² 5.5%

Polymarket

$29,158 Vol.

<4 milhões de km² 38%

4,0-4,2 milhões km² 14.5%

4,4-4,6 milhões km² 7.3%

4,2-4,4 milhões km² 5.5%

Polymarket

$29,158 Vol.

<4 milhões de km²

$23,532 Vol.

40%

4,0-4,2 milhões km²

$1,696 Vol.

15%

4,2-4,4 milhões km²

$708 Vol.

8%

4,4-4,6 milhões km²

$764 Vol.

10%

4,6-4,8m km²

$1,324 Vol.

6%

4,8-5 milhões km²

$562 Vol.

24%

5 milhões+ km²

$573 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% probability for the Arctic sea ice minimum extent this summer falling below 4 million square kilometers, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements. This stems from anomalously low ice volume and thickness, exacerbated by persistent open water in the Barents Sea that boosted ocean heat absorption and limited refreezing. Thinner, first-year ice is highly susceptible to melt under continued Arctic amplification, though summer atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could moderate losses. NSIDC monthly reports and emerging Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) outlooks in May-June will refine forecasts amid model uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$29,158
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43% probability for the Arctic sea ice minimum extent this summer falling below 4 million square kilometers, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements. This stems from anomalously low ice volume and thickness, exacerbated by persistent open water in the Barents Sea that boosted ocean heat absorption and limited refreezing. Thinner, first-year ice is highly susceptible to melt under continued Arctic amplification, though summer atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could moderate losses. NSIDC monthly reports and emerging Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) outlooks in May-June will refine forecasts amid model uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$29,158
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<4 milhões de km²" at 40%, followed by "4,8-5 milhões km²" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" has generated $29.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" is "<4 milhões de km²" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,8-5 milhões km²" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.