Market icon
Tecnologia·Cultura

Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Cultura

Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$1,897,664 Vol.

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$1,897,664 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% implied probability for no human moon landing in 2026, driven primarily by NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program amid persistent SpaceX Starship delays. The agency shifted Artemis III—originally eyed for a late-2026 lunar landing—to a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration of commercial human landing systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin, with the first crewed surface mission now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028. Recent Starship development setbacks, including at least two years of slippage flagged in a March inspector general report, have eroded timelines further. While Artemis II's successful April 1 crewed lunar flyby marks progress, landing hardware remains unproven. Realistic wildcards include accelerated Starship testing or an unforeseen private venture breakthrough, though historical program delays and technical hurdles make a 2026 landing improbable absent major surprises.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,897,664
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% implied probability for no human moon landing in 2026, driven primarily by NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program amid persistent SpaceX Starship delays. The agency shifted Artemis III—originally eyed for a late-2026 lunar landing—to a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration of commercial human landing systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin, with the first crewed surface mission now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028. Recent Starship development setbacks, including at least two years of slippage flagged in a March inspector general report, have eroded timelines further. While Artemis II's successful April 1 crewed lunar flyby marks progress, landing hardware remains unproven. Realistic wildcards include accelerated Starship testing or an unforeseen private venture breakthrough, though historical program delays and technical hurdles make a 2026 landing improbable absent major surprises.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,897,664
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pouso humano na Lua em 2026?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" is "Pouso humano na Lua em 2026?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.