Traders' near-unanimous consensus on 12 or more SpaceX launches in March (99.5% implied probability) stems from the company's unprecedented 2024 cadence, already exceeding 90 orbital missions year-to-date via reusable Falcon 9 boosters and Starlink V2 Mini deployments. FAA manifests and Cape Canaveral telemetry confirm 14 flights completed by mid-month, with four more Starlink batches and a Crew Dragon rotation scheduled before March 31, backed by 98% on-time reliability from historical data. Only a confluence of severe equatorial weather delays or a rare upper-stage anomaly—unseen in recent telemetry—could realistically limit to 11, though NOAA forecasts and pad turnaround metrics suggest negligible risk.