Official observations from São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport, the market's primary reference station and corroborated by Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) bulletins, recorded a maximum temperature of exactly 30°C on March 28, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This matched INMET's pre-event forecasts of sunny conditions and highs near 30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, which suppressed cloud cover and precipitation while slightly exceeding the late-March climatological average of 28°C. Such alignment reflects the reliability of short-range numerical weather models like those from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC). Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post hoc data revisions due to sensor malfunctions or unresolved discrepancies across monitoring stations, with final INMET summaries expected to confirm the record.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$110,942 Vol.
$110,942 Vol.
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$110,942 Vol.
$110,942 Vol.
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Official observations from São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport, the market's primary reference station and corroborated by Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) bulletins, recorded a maximum temperature of exactly 30°C on March 28, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome. This matched INMET's pre-event forecasts of sunny conditions and highs near 30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge, which suppressed cloud cover and precipitation while slightly exceeding the late-March climatological average of 28°C. Such alignment reflects the reliability of short-range numerical weather models like those from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC). Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post hoc data revisions due to sensor malfunctions or unresolved discrepancies across monitoring stations, with final INMET summaries expected to confirm the record.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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