Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20–21°C highs in Madrid on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating mild southerly flow and highs clustering around 20°C amid a broader Atlantic ridge pattern. AEMET's official outlook aligns, projecting 19–22°C with low precipitation risk, differentiating leaders from cooler 18–19°C via potential cloud breaks enhancing insolation. Historical March 22 averages hover at 17°C, but recent +2–3°C anomalies from weakened polar vortex boost warmer odds; sub-15°C tails reflect ensemble spread from possible nocturnal inversions or late cold advection, with model updates tomorrow pivotal for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 22 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 22 de março?
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
19°C 14%
18°C 12%
14°C ou menos
11%
15°C
8%
16°C
9%
17°C
11%
18°C
12%
19°C
14%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C ou mais
8%
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
19°C 14%
18°C 12%
14°C ou menos
11%
15°C
8%
16°C
9%
17°C
11%
18°C
12%
19°C
14%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C ou mais
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 20–21°C highs in Madrid on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating mild southerly flow and highs clustering around 20°C amid a broader Atlantic ridge pattern. AEMET's official outlook aligns, projecting 19–22°C with low precipitation risk, differentiating leaders from cooler 18–19°C via potential cloud breaks enhancing insolation. Historical March 22 averages hover at 17°C, but recent +2–3°C anomalies from weakened polar vortex boost warmer odds; sub-15°C tails reflect ensemble spread from possible nocturnal inversions or late cold advection, with model updates tomorrow pivotal for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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