Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.7% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism amid stalled recapitalization efforts following the 2008 conservatorship. Recent FHFA directives for $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases have prioritized housing affordability over privatization, delaying exit timelines as noted by FHFA Director Pulte's earlier comments now overshadowed by inaction through Q1 2026. Fannie and Freddie shares plunged to 52-week lows this week, down over 45% year-to-date, signaling eroding investor confidence in Trump administration plans lacking firm regulatory pathways or legislative backing. Michael Burry's assessment of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores recapitalization hurdles. A surprise executive order or congressional bill could challenge this positioning, though proximity to resolution heightens last-minute risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026 95.2%
<150B 2.4%
250–300B <1%
150–200B <1%
$180,917 Vol.
$180,917 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
2%
150–200B
1%
200–250B
1%
250–300B
1%
300B+
1%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026
95%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026 95.2%
<150B 2.4%
250–300B <1%
150–200B <1%
$180,917 Vol.
$180,917 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
$78,906 Vol.
2%
150–200B
$29,765 Vol.
1%
200–250B
$18,720 Vol.
1%
250–300B
$4,661 Vol.
1%
300B+
$6,328 Vol.
1%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026
$42,537 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.7% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism amid stalled recapitalization efforts following the 2008 conservatorship. Recent FHFA directives for $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases have prioritized housing affordability over privatization, delaying exit timelines as noted by FHFA Director Pulte's earlier comments now overshadowed by inaction through Q1 2026. Fannie and Freddie shares plunged to 52-week lows this week, down over 45% year-to-date, signaling eroding investor confidence in Trump administration plans lacking firm regulatory pathways or legislative backing. Michael Burry's assessment of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores recapitalization hurdles. A surprise executive order or congressional bill could challenge this positioning, though proximity to resolution heightens last-minute risks.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$180,917Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.7% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism amid stalled recapitalization efforts following the 2008 conservatorship. Recent FHFA directives for $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases have prioritized housing affordability over privatization, delaying exit timelines as noted by FHFA Director Pulte's earlier comments now overshadowed by inaction through Q1 2026. Fannie and Freddie shares plunged to 52-week lows this week, down over 45% year-to-date, signaling eroding investor confidence in Trump administration plans lacking firm regulatory pathways or legislative backing. Michael Burry's assessment of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores recapitalization hurdles. A surprise executive order or congressional bill could challenge this positioning, though proximity to resolution heightens last-minute risks.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$180,917Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.7% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism amid stalled recapitalization efforts following the 2008 conservatorship. Recent FHFA directives for $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases have prioritized housing affordability over privatization, delaying exit timelines as noted by FHFA Director Pulte's earlier comments now overshadowed by inaction through Q1 2026. Fannie and Freddie shares plunged to 52-week lows this week, down over 45% year-to-date, signaling eroding investor confidence in Trump administration plans lacking firm regulatory pathways or legislative backing. Michael Burry's assessment of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores recapitalization hurdles. A surprise executive order or congressional bill could challenge this positioning, though proximity to resolution heightens last-minute risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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