Trader consensus clusters around 1320-1399 tweets for Elon Musk in April 2026, with top implied probabilities of 12.6% and 11% reflecting his sustained late-2024 posting rate of 40-50 daily, totaling 1,200-1,500 monthly amid political engagement and Tesla/xAI updates. November 2024 peaked at 2,031 tweets during election fervor, easing to steadier volumes like October's 1,418 without recent slowdowns, anchoring mid-1300s as the baseline. Closely matched frontrunners highlight competitive dynamics: narrow historical variance leaves room for swings from viral controversies, platform algorithm tweaks, or personal shifts by 2026, with no fresh catalysts in the past 30 days to break the deadlock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado1360-1399 11.5%
1320-1359 9.7%
1280-1319 9.0%
1400-1439 9.0%
$4,333,154 Vol.
$4,333,154 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
4%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
12%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
1%
1360-1399 11.5%
1320-1359 9.7%
1280-1319 9.0%
1400-1439 9.0%
$4,333,154 Vol.
$4,333,154 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
4%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
12%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 1320-1399 tweets for Elon Musk in April 2026, with top implied probabilities of 12.6% and 11% reflecting his sustained late-2024 posting rate of 40-50 daily, totaling 1,200-1,500 monthly amid political engagement and Tesla/xAI updates. November 2024 peaked at 2,031 tweets during election fervor, easing to steadier volumes like October's 1,418 without recent slowdowns, anchoring mid-1300s as the baseline. Closely matched frontrunners highlight competitive dynamics: narrow historical variance leaves room for swings from viral controversies, platform algorithm tweaks, or personal shifts by 2026, with no fresh catalysts in the past 30 days to break the deadlock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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