Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to Alphabet retaining its position as the third-largest company by market capitalization by April 30, driven by its current $3.47 trillion valuation—solidly ahead of Microsoft at $2.75 trillion, a gap exceeding 25% that limits upside risks from the software giant amid moderating AI spending growth. NVIDIA leads at $4.24 trillion and Apple at $3.73 trillion, but both shed roughly 8% in market cap over the past month amid profit-taking and valuation concerns, narrowing Apple's lead over Alphabet to just 7%. Apple's 22% odds reflect potential relative outperformance by Alphabet's AI-exposed Google Cloud segment versus Apple's softening iPhone demand. With month-end resolution approaching, absent major earnings surprises, the hierarchy appears stable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAlphabet 75%
Apple 22%
NVIDIA 2.5%
Microsoft 1.1%
$701,547 Vol.
$701,547 Vol.

Alphabet
75%

Apple
22%

NVIDIA
2%

Microsoft
1%

Saudi Aramco
1%

Oracle
<1%

Tesla
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Alphabet 75%
Apple 22%
NVIDIA 2.5%
Microsoft 1.1%
$701,547 Vol.
$701,547 Vol.

Alphabet
75%

Apple
22%

NVIDIA
2%

Microsoft
1%

Saudi Aramco
1%

Oracle
<1%

Tesla
<1%

Amazon
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to Alphabet retaining its position as the third-largest company by market capitalization by April 30, driven by its current $3.47 trillion valuation—solidly ahead of Microsoft at $2.75 trillion, a gap exceeding 25% that limits upside risks from the software giant amid moderating AI spending growth. NVIDIA leads at $4.24 trillion and Apple at $3.73 trillion, but both shed roughly 8% in market cap over the past month amid profit-taking and valuation concerns, narrowing Apple's lead over Alphabet to just 7%. Apple's 22% odds reflect potential relative outperformance by Alphabet's AI-exposed Google Cloud segment versus Apple's softening iPhone demand. With month-end resolution approaching, absent major earnings surprises, the hierarchy appears stable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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