tetlock
Joined Mar 2026·0 views
$117.54
Positions Value
$1.69
Biggest Win
19
Predictions
Profit/Loss
Past Day
Current

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 shares56¢
47.5¢
$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 shares$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 shares49¢
81¢
$22.08$8.72 (65.31%)

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 shares$22.08$8.72 (65.31%)

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Yes 70¢
19.1 shares$14.31$0.95 (7.14%)

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
No 71¢
18.8 shares$13.64$0.28 (2.11%)

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes 44¢
30.4 shares$11.84-$1.52 (-11.36%)

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 shares45¢
31¢
$9.20-$4.16 (-31.11%)

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 shares$9.20-$4.16 (-31.11%)

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
No 55¢
23.6 shares$7.21-$5.79 (-44.55%)

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 86¢
2.3 shares$1.90-$0.10 (-5.24%)

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No 63.1¢
3.2 shares$1.85-$0.15 (-7.69%)

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 shares74.9¢
22¢
$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 shares$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Yes 28¢
6.4 shares$0.58-$1.22 (-67.86%)
