Recent UAP file releases under the Trump administration’s PURSUE program, including Pentagon waivers easing disclosures and tranches of declassified military videos and documents, have increased transparency without producing any official statement affirming extraterrestrial life or technology. Congressional interest, including potential testimony on 2025 orb incidents and legislative efforts for a UAP records framework, continues alongside work by the UAP Science Advisory Council. However, analyses of released materials have attributed objects to natural phenomena or unidentified cases short of nonhuman origin. The market’s low implied probability reflects the strict resolution criteria requiring a definitive public statement from the president, cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or a federal agency by the deadline, a threshold historical patterns and current evidence suggest remains unlikely absent a major verified breakthrough.