In response to trader inquiry: The threshold of 251,882 in the original rules, as determined by the record high at the time of this market's inception, will continue to be used for this market’s resolution. Note however that the record high has been updated from 251,882 to 254,052, given a retroactive data update from the CDC, and may continue to be updated.

This is a market on whether the United States will report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States reports a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average on or after the date of this market’s inception, July 20, 2021, and on or before December 31, 2021. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” At the time of this market’s inception, the record high 7-day COVID-19 case average in the United States was 251,882. Thus, if the US reaches a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 251,883 or more on or after July 20, 2021 and before January 1, 2022, this market would resolve to “Yes.” 

This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to "Select a state or territory" and select “United States”, and then scroll to "Data Table for Daily Case Trends" and view the data in the "7-Day Moving Avg" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, to see if the United States reported a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average. The market will resolve immediately if the criteria for “Yes” are met. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking the 7-day average on all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. If the website is down or data is unavailable during the final check, the market will resolve based on the most recent previous check that had data available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?

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