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Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?

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Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 25,000 in the US for any day ranging from February 22, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases.

The market will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 25,000. If an average below 25,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 25,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 25,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.

The final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.
Volume
$279,054
End Date
Apr 8, 2022
Market Opened
Feb 21, 2022, 7:00 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 25,000 in the US for any day ranging from February 22, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 25,000. If an average below 25,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 25,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 25,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point. The final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 25,000 in the US for any day ranging from February 22, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases.

The market will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 25,000. If an average below 25,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 25,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 25,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.

The final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.
Volume
$279,054
End Date
Apr 8, 2022
Market Opened
Feb 21, 2022, 7:00 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 25,000 in the US for any day ranging from February 22, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 25,000. If an average below 25,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 25,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 25,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point. The final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?" has generated $279.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 22, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.