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Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

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Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states:

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."

There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm

This is a market on whether any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty by June 30, 2022. If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between March 2, 2022, and June 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however credible media sources will also suffice.
Volume
$28,319
End Date
Jun 30, 2022
Market Opened
Mar 1, 2022, 7:00 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/index.htm

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm This is a market on whether any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty by June 30, 2022. If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between March 2, 2022, and June 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however credible media sources will also suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states:

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."

There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm

This is a market on whether any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty by June 30, 2022. If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between March 2, 2022, and June 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however credible media sources will also suffice.
Volume
$28,319
End Date
Jun 30, 2022
Market Opened
Mar 1, 2022, 7:00 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/index.htm

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm This is a market on whether any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty by June 30, 2022. If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between March 2, 2022, and June 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however credible media sources will also suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?" has generated $28.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 2, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.