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Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?

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Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?

On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States. If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.

On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States.

If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.
Volume
$60,580
End Date
Aug 3, 2022
Market Opened
May 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States. If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States. If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.

On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States.

If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.
Volume
$60,580
End Date
Aug 3, 2022
Market Opened
May 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
On May 2, 2022, Politico published a story (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) including a leaked version of a decision being drafted by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a set of highly contentious SCOTUS decisions that guarantee the right of American citizens' access to abortion. This was a draft from mid-February, and Supreme Court Justices are known to change opinions during the drafting process, however it has engendered intense controversy in the United States. If SCOTUS releases a decision in the case "No. 19-1392 - Thomas E. Dobbs, State Health Officer of the Mississippi Department of Health, et al., Petitioners v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, et al." in which associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. delivers the majority opinion by October 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Concurring or dissent opinions will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by SCOTUS (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/opinions.aspx), however credible media reporting may be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?" has generated $60.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 4, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

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The current probability for "Will Alito deliver the final majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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