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On August 15, 2025, speculation emerged regarding the potential use of a body double for Vladimir Putin during his meeting with President Trump at the Russia-US Summit in Alaska.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, previously unreleased evidence definitively confirming that a Putin body double met with President Trump at any point on August 15, 2025, AKDT is made public. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Putin body double which was sent by the Russian federation, and met with Trump on August 15 will qualify, regardless of if the real Putin was present as well. 

Official confirmation from the Trump administration, or the Russian Federation will qualify as definitive evidence.  

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Putin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31? 

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Hungary at any time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Trump and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Putin out as president of Russia
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Trump visits Russia
- Putin meets Zelensky
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU1.png 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Donald Trump by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is photographed or videotaped wearing a Western-style suit and tie in the physical presence of Trump at any point during their next in-person meeting period between November 24, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A “meeting period” refers to the full continuous span of time associated with their next in-person engagement. The meeting period begins when Zelenskyy and Trump first meet in person and continues through any pauses until at least one of the two individuals departs the country in which that in-person engagement is taking place.

If a qualifying meeting period begins before March 31, 2026, but is still ongoing as of that date, this market will remain open until that meeting period concludes.

A Western-style suit and tie refers to a conventional business suit consisting of a jacket, trousers, dress shirt, and necktie, as commonly understood in Western formal or business attire.

Formal military attire, such as was previously worn by Zelenskyy (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/00.png), which does not meet the above specifications, will not qualify.

This market will resolve to “No” if the next meeting period concludes without a qualifying photograph or video, or if no qualifying in-person meeting occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.

Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?

Amid rumors of a U.S.-drafted peace framework, a so-called 28-point proposal to end the war with Russia, Zelenskiy is scheduled to meet U.S. Army officials in Kyiv on November 20. More details can be found here: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases a new framework to end the war between Ukraine and Russia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying document must be framed as a new peace proposal outlining specific conditions, for example, regarding reparations, territorial agreements, demilitarization, sanctions, etc.

A mere announcement that such a document exists or will be released will not suffice.

To qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the document or its content to the public. Reports that a qualifying document was provided privately, for example, to Ukrainian officials, will not suffice. 

Partial releases, such as a written summary or outline, will count as long as they are framed as a peace proposal outlining specific conditions.

Leaks or unverified/unofficial information will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russia coup attempt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased evidence definitively confirming that either Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell were Mossad operatives is made public by December 31 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market ‘operative’ includes any direct involvement in assisting or providing information to Mossad.

Official confirmation from the Trump administration or the Israeli government will qualify as definitive evidence.  

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Russia between September 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Zelenskyy physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Zelenskyy enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of Ukraine, official information from Zelenskyy, or information released by his verified social media accounts; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Putin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31?

Market Context

Putin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31?

Rules

Putin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31?

Market Context

Putin body double in Alaska confirmed by August 31?

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