Recent reaffirmations of production quotas and market-stability commitments by core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, following the UAE’s May 1 exit underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026. The organization continues monthly output adjustments amid the Iran war’s supply disruptions and lowered 2026 global demand forecasts, demonstrating institutional resilience despite past member departures. Trader consensus reflects the strong incentives for Saudi-led coordination to manage oil prices and inventories, with no formal dissolution signals in regulatory filings or official statements. Realistic challenges include additional exits or quota disputes that could erode influence, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting rather than disbanding.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$28,683 Vol.
$28,683 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$28,683 Vol.
$28,683 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent reaffirmations of production quotas and market-stability commitments by core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, following the UAE’s May 1 exit underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026. The organization continues monthly output adjustments amid the Iran war’s supply disruptions and lowered 2026 global demand forecasts, demonstrating institutional resilience despite past member departures. Trader consensus reflects the strong incentives for Saudi-led coordination to manage oil prices and inventories, with no formal dissolution signals in regulatory filings or official statements. Realistic challenges include additional exits or quota disputes that could erode influence, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting rather than disbanding.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$28,683Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent reaffirmations of production quotas and market-stability commitments by core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, following the UAE’s May 1 exit underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026. The organization continues monthly output adjustments amid the Iran war’s supply disruptions and lowered 2026 global demand forecasts, demonstrating institutional resilience despite past member departures. Trader consensus reflects the strong incentives for Saudi-led coordination to manage oil prices and inventories, with no formal dissolution signals in regulatory filings or official statements. Realistic challenges include additional exits or quota disputes that could erode influence, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting rather than disbanding.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,683Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reaffirmations of production quotas and market-stability commitments by core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, following the UAE’s May 1 exit underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026. The organization continues monthly output adjustments amid the Iran war’s supply disruptions and lowered 2026 global demand forecasts, demonstrating institutional resilience despite past member departures. Trader consensus reflects the strong incentives for Saudi-led coordination to manage oil prices and inventories, with no formal dissolution signals in regulatory filings or official statements. Realistic challenges include additional exits or quota disputes that could erode influence, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting rather than disbanding.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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