OPEC's continued operational activity through mid-2026 underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve this year. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held multiple ministerial meetings, adjusted production quotas by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid output increases and geopolitical disruptions such as the Hormuz closure. Recent downward revisions to 2026 oil demand growth forecasts and the scheduled June 18 launch of OPEC's World Oil Outlook further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's May exit and regional conflicts introduce uncertainty, full dissolution would require coordinated withdrawal by remaining members or a fundamental breakdown in cartel coordination, scenarios that lack supporting developments in official releases or trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued operational activity through mid-2026 underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve this year. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held multiple ministerial meetings, adjusted production quotas by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid output increases and geopolitical disruptions such as the Hormuz closure. Recent downward revisions to 2026 oil demand growth forecasts and the scheduled June 18 launch of OPEC's World Oil Outlook further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's May exit and regional conflicts introduce uncertainty, full dissolution would require coordinated withdrawal by remaining members or a fundamental breakdown in cartel coordination, scenarios that lack supporting developments in official releases or trader positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued operational activity through mid-2026 underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve this year. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held multiple ministerial meetings, adjusted production quotas by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid output increases and geopolitical disruptions such as the Hormuz closure. Recent downward revisions to 2026 oil demand growth forecasts and the scheduled June 18 launch of OPEC's World Oil Outlook further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's May exit and regional conflicts introduce uncertainty, full dissolution would require coordinated withdrawal by remaining members or a fundamental breakdown in cartel coordination, scenarios that lack supporting developments in official releases or trader positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's continued operational activity through mid-2026 underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve this year. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held multiple ministerial meetings, adjusted production quotas by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid output increases and geopolitical disruptions such as the Hormuz closure. Recent downward revisions to 2026 oil demand growth forecasts and the scheduled June 18 launch of OPEC's World Oil Outlook further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's May exit and regional conflicts introduce uncertainty, full dissolution would require coordinated withdrawal by remaining members or a fundamental breakdown in cartel coordination, scenarios that lack supporting developments in official releases or trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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