OPEC continues to demonstrate operational continuity through regular ministerial meetings, production quota adjustments, and joint statements on market stability as recently as September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq actively coordinating amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Recent reaffirmations of commitment by participating nations and ongoing dialogues, such as the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, reinforce the view that the organization retains its intergovernmental structure and decision-making processes. While individual exits like the UAE's in May have reduced influence and prompted quota disputes, no threshold for formal dissolution—such as majority withdrawals or an official disbandment agreement—has been approached. Trader pricing at 96.2% against dissolution reflects this sustained activity, though abrupt escalations in member exits or regional fractures could still introduce late-year uncertainty before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$38,777 Vol.
$38,777 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$38,777 Vol.
$38,777 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to demonstrate operational continuity through regular ministerial meetings, production quota adjustments, and joint statements on market stability as recently as September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq actively coordinating amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Recent reaffirmations of commitment by participating nations and ongoing dialogues, such as the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, reinforce the view that the organization retains its intergovernmental structure and decision-making processes. While individual exits like the UAE's in May have reduced influence and prompted quota disputes, no threshold for formal dissolution—such as majority withdrawals or an official disbandment agreement—has been approached. Trader pricing at 96.2% against dissolution reflects this sustained activity, though abrupt escalations in member exits or regional fractures could still introduce late-year uncertainty before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$38,777End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to demonstrate operational continuity through regular ministerial meetings, production quota adjustments, and joint statements on market stability as recently as September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq actively coordinating amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Recent reaffirmations of commitment by participating nations and ongoing dialogues, such as the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, reinforce the view that the organization retains its intergovernmental structure and decision-making processes. While individual exits like the UAE's in May have reduced influence and prompted quota disputes, no threshold for formal dissolution—such as majority withdrawals or an official disbandment agreement—has been approached. Trader pricing at 96.2% against dissolution reflects this sustained activity, though abrupt escalations in member exits or regional fractures could still introduce late-year uncertainty before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,777End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC continues to demonstrate operational continuity through regular ministerial meetings, production quota adjustments, and joint statements on market stability as recently as September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq actively coordinating amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Recent reaffirmations of commitment by participating nations and ongoing dialogues, such as the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, reinforce the view that the organization retains its intergovernmental structure and decision-making processes. While individual exits like the UAE's in May have reduced influence and prompted quota disputes, no threshold for formal dissolution—such as majority withdrawals or an official disbandment agreement—has been approached. Trader pricing at 96.2% against dissolution reflects this sustained activity, though abrupt escalations in member exits or regional fractures could still introduce late-year uncertainty before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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