Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit from OPEC and OPEC+ announced April 28 and effective today, May 1. This third-largest producer's departure—driven by frustrations over quota limits amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflicts—erodes cartel clout but has prompted swift reaffirmations of commitment from core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kazakhstan following recent ministerial meetings. Ongoing production adjustments, like the April 5 OPEC+ decision to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, underscore coordinated supply management. Key catalysts include the June 7 Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and potential further exits, though historical cohesion amid volatility favors continuity through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit from OPEC and OPEC+ announced April 28 and effective today, May 1. This third-largest producer's departure—driven by frustrations over quota limits amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflicts—erodes cartel clout but has prompted swift reaffirmations of commitment from core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kazakhstan following recent ministerial meetings. Ongoing production adjustments, like the April 5 OPEC+ decision to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, underscore coordinated supply management. Key catalysts include the June 7 Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and potential further exits, though historical cohesion amid volatility favors continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$7,379End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit from OPEC and OPEC+ announced April 28 and effective today, May 1. This third-largest producer's departure—driven by frustrations over quota limits amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflicts—erodes cartel clout but has prompted swift reaffirmations of commitment from core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kazakhstan following recent ministerial meetings. Ongoing production adjustments, like the April 5 OPEC+ decision to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, underscore coordinated supply management. Key catalysts include the June 7 Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and potential further exits, though historical cohesion amid volatility favors continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,379End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit from OPEC and OPEC+ announced April 28 and effective today, May 1. This third-largest producer's departure—driven by frustrations over quota limits amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflicts—erodes cartel clout but has prompted swift reaffirmations of commitment from core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Algeria, and Kazakhstan following recent ministerial meetings. Ongoing production adjustments, like the April 5 OPEC+ decision to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, underscore coordinated supply management. Key catalysts include the June 7 Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and potential further exits, though historical cohesion amid volatility favors continuity through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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