Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization's core decision-making structure remains intact, with key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular meetings to set output policies through year-end and review capacity baselines for 2027. Recent individual exits, such as the UAE's departure in May and ongoing internal quota disputes involving Iraq and Venezuela, have not triggered coordinated withdrawals or halted collective action, even amid disruptions from the Iran conflict. The group continues to adjust production targets incrementally while managing external pressures from non-OPEC supply growth. Full dissolution by December 31 would require multiple simultaneous exits by major producers or a complete breakdown in Saudi-led coordination, developments that lack supporting signals in current diplomatic and production data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$36,499 Vol.
$36,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$36,499 Vol.
$36,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization's core decision-making structure remains intact, with key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular meetings to set output policies through year-end and review capacity baselines for 2027. Recent individual exits, such as the UAE's departure in May and ongoing internal quota disputes involving Iraq and Venezuela, have not triggered coordinated withdrawals or halted collective action, even amid disruptions from the Iran conflict. The group continues to adjust production targets incrementally while managing external pressures from non-OPEC supply growth. Full dissolution by December 31 would require multiple simultaneous exits by major producers or a complete breakdown in Saudi-led coordination, developments that lack supporting signals in current diplomatic and production data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$36,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization's core decision-making structure remains intact, with key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular meetings to set output policies through year-end and review capacity baselines for 2027. Recent individual exits, such as the UAE's departure in May and ongoing internal quota disputes involving Iraq and Venezuela, have not triggered coordinated withdrawals or halted collective action, even amid disruptions from the Iran conflict. The group continues to adjust production targets incrementally while managing external pressures from non-OPEC supply growth. Full dissolution by December 31 would require multiple simultaneous exits by major producers or a complete breakdown in Saudi-led coordination, developments that lack supporting signals in current diplomatic and production data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$36,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.9% probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026 because the organization's core decision-making structure remains intact, with key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular meetings to set output policies through year-end and review capacity baselines for 2027. Recent individual exits, such as the UAE's departure in May and ongoing internal quota disputes involving Iraq and Venezuela, have not triggered coordinated withdrawals or halted collective action, even amid disruptions from the Iran conflict. The group continues to adjust production targets incrementally while managing external pressures from non-OPEC supply growth. Full dissolution by December 31 would require multiple simultaneous exits by major producers or a complete breakdown in Saudi-led coordination, developments that lack supporting signals in current diplomatic and production data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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